Thursday, 21 January 2010

And then we beat Inter Milan

We were out of the FA Cup in humiliating fashion. A team from the Championship had beaten us 2-1 on our own ground courtesy of a late goal. Our title challenge had died before Christmas (again). Just a couple of weeks ago we had been as low as seventh in the table and looked like needing a miracle to even finish in the top four. We had underperformed in the Champions League too losing 2 of our first 3 group games including an utterly dire home defeat to a team from France. It was too much to take and this Cup exit was the final straw. Benitez may have won us our fifth European Cup and another FA Cup and brought us Fernando Torres but I’d had enough. I wanted the Spaniard out of Anfield.

Everything in that first paragraph could have been written about this season but actually I was describing 2007-08. After our Cup defeat to Barnsley, I was so disillusioned that I had lost belief that Rafa Benitez could get this team playing good football and winning matches again. In fact I thought there was so little quality in the squad that a total clear out was required.

And then we beat Inter Milan.

Following that 2-0 home victory against the Italian Champions, belief returned to the players. We began to play some excellent football dismantling teams at home with goals galore from Torres and Gerrard. Arsenal were beaten in an exhilarating Champions League quarter final and Chelsea were a 97th minute John Arne Riise own goal away from being put out at the semi-final stage for a third time in four years. A derby win at Anfield all but secured Champions League qualification for the following season and we approached the summer with optimism.

A year on we were treated to some of the most outstanding attacking football by a Liverpool team since the 1987 vintage as we so narrowly missed out on ending our title drought. From useless in February ’08 to thrashing Real Madrid and Man Utd in the space of 5 days in March ’09, it was a remarkable transformation.

After the 4-2 Champions League win over Arsenal, I realised what a shallow, knee-jerk reacting fool I had been to call for the manager’s head and promised I would not be so fickle again. This season my resolve has been tested but thus far I have backed the manager and, who knows, maybe this time next season things will look far rosier and I might reflect on how this campaign had looked hopeless and beyond salvation.

And then we beat Tottenham.

Sunday, 17 January 2010

Liverpool v Spurs: Prediction

When Liverpool’s home match against Spurs was postponed from its scheduled date of 10th January due to snow, I thought it would be convenient for us seeing as we would have had to play the fixture with no fit right back. Ironically, had we played the game on its scheduled date we would have been able to field Gerrard, Torres and Benayoun against them whereas now that won’t happen.

I’ve heard some talk that Spurs are going to thrash us. Nonsense.

In the 17 previous seasons since the First Division was renamed ‘the Premiership’, Spurs have won at Anfield just once in the League and that was all the way back in the 1993-94 season. In 15 visits since they have managed 5 draws and suffered 10 defeats. Therefore it would be a massive achievement for Spurs just to win, let alone wipe the floor with us.

The likelihood of us winning looks pretty slim given the lack of attacking threat remaining in our decimated squad and, of course, there is another decisive factor that makes a Liverpool win unlikely – the game is in January.

Out of 20 League games played under Rafa Benitez in the month of January so far, Liverpool have won just 6 - and 4 of those came in the 2006-07 season. 1 League match was won in January in 2004-05 and in 2005-06 while in 2007-08, 2008-09 and this season so far, not a single League game was won.

Therefore a draw looks by far the most likely outcome. A win would close the gap between the two sides to just one point and seriously give us a fighting chance of finishing in the top four. A defeat would end any realistic hopes we have of finishing fourth and take the despair currently being felt by Liverpool supporters to even lower depths.

Sunday, 10 January 2010

Gillett and Hicks: What are they playing at?

It really is a sorry state of affairs at Anfield right now. I can understand Gillett and Hicks delaying work on the new stadium until the credit crunch avails but what I can’t accept is the lack of investment in playing staff.

Under the old regime we couldn’t match the spending of the Mancs or the nouveau riche clubs like Chelsea but at least we never had a summer where there was nothing to spend.

In 2009, we recouped at least £53.4m from the sales of Robbie Keane, Jack Hobbs, Sebastian Leto, Paul Anderson, Alvaro Arbeloa, Xabi Alonso and Adam Hammill. In the summer, Rafa was allowed to spend £6m plus the £11m already owed by Portsmouth to us on Glen Johnson and then agreed a £20m fee for Alberto Aquilani for which I understand only the first £5m was paid in 2009. That means £53.4m came in and just £11m went out before Rafa was refused the money to buy a half decent centre half and given a paltry £1.5m to sign a washed up useless Greek instead. Ignoring the finer details of our spending, even if we took the £17m + £20m + £1.5m it still only amounts to £38.5m - £14.9m less than we recouped.

When has that ever happened? When has any Liverpool manager been given literally nothing to invest in his squad?

And now after hailing their triumph in negotiating a record breaking new shirt sponsorship deal for the club, the owners are still giving Rafa nothing to spend. It appears they will sanction £1.5m for Rodriguez, whom they originally were only prepared to sign on loan and then potentially on a Bosman in the summer, but Rafa has brought in £6.2m for the sales of Dossena and Voronin so would still have made £4.7m net profit in this transfer window alone.

We all have views as to whether Rafa should have accepted Birmingham’s £9m bid for Ryan Babel but given Rafa knew he would not be allowed to reinvest the money he was absolutely 100% correct not to sanction the sale. Babel is a pain in the arse and I believe he will never achieve his true potential under Rafa Benitez but it’s better to have the moaning Dutchman in the squad than to have no one and no money to sign a replacement.

It seems every penny brought in by the manager’s transfer dealings is being sucked into the black hole that is the Americans’ debts.

Are Gillett and Hicks so ignorant about ‘soccer’ that they genuinely do not understand that success of any kind requires investment in playing staff? How can any so-called businessman buy a company, neglect it and consider it good business? What are they actually hoping to achieve with Liverpool Football Club? We know they want to make money off it but how? Surely the only way to make money off it is to maintain its status as a top four club and Champions League regular and build the stadium? Without investing in the playing staff, there is no way any manager can keep Liverpool in the top four.

I am really starting to wonder, are Gillett and Hicks the stupidest businessmen in the world or is there a more sinister motive to their apparently clueless performance as ‘custodians’ of Liverpool FC? Are they perhaps looking to break up our ‘franchise’ and sell it piece by piece to the highest bidder? I can’t see how that would work but then I am not a shrewd businessman and, in any case, it makes as much sense as the current business plan from what we’ve seen of it.

David Moores, hang your head in shame for what you have done to our football club.

A Tribute to Andrily Voronin

Hooray!!! Voronin has gone!!!!

I thought this day had come a year and a half ago when the Ukrainian was packed off to Hertha Berlin but this time he has definitely gone. I feel so elated. It is such a relief to know I have seen Andrily Voronin in a Liverpool shirt for the last time.

When Keane was sold a year ago, people questioned whether we had sufficient strength in depth up front. Minus either or both of Torres and Gerrard, our options were Kuyt, Babel and Ngog. Neither Kuyt nor Babel had done enough to convince they could lead the line while Ngog, at that time, looked a million miles away from being ready for the first team. At that time, I thought it would actually be worth having Voronin as an option rather than having no one else as an option.

When Rafa reluctantly brought Voronin back into the squad, having been denied the chance to reinvest the £16m+ he recouped on Keane, I thought it made sense. Of course I hoped Rafa would never need to use the Ukrainian but if ever a need arose, I thought it better to have him to use than not to.

As it turned out, I was wrong.

My Dad actually hit the nail on the head when he said after our away game in Lyon, the team would have been more effective had Rafa played Plessis or Spearing as an extra midfielder or basically any other player anywhere on the pitch instead of including Voronin in the starting XI. Of all Voronin’s inept performances in the Liverpool shirt, Lyon away was probably his worst and his failure to convert a one-on-one right before half time may well have been the difference between us contemplating a Champions League tie against Real Madrid and a Europa League tie against Unirea Urziceni.

Voronin has been so bad this season that actually it would have been better had he not been in the squad at all. Rafa clearly shares this view with retrospect which is why, after the Lyon game, he allowed Voronin to take a holiday and excluded him permanently from his first team plans.

It is some statement when a player actually makes a squad worse by being in it. That is Voronin’s extraordinary legacy.

He was a signing that always felt overpriced despite costing nothing. Whereas players signed on free transfers usually have much higher valuations and are merely free because their contracts have expired, in Voronin’s case, a free transfer was his actual transfer value.

Given that, it is fantastic that Dinamo Moscow have actually been dumb enough to give us some money for taking the player off our hands. A £1.8m profit on Voronin helps reduce the £2.6m loss we took on Andrea Dossena to just -£800K. That is the best thing Voronin has ever done for us!

Tuesday, 5 January 2010

Would you sell Steven Gerrard?

As always happens in the silly season, articles have circulated linking Gerrard with £40m moves to Inter Milan, Man City, Chelsea, etc. It's all tabloid bullshit, of course, but it has sparked some interesting debate on 'The Tomkins Times' website as to whether or not the club should consider selling Gerrard. While some people clearly recoil in horror at the suggestion, I always think such things are worth thinking through before being dismissed out of hand.

If I am honest, I have to confess, the prospect of selling the skipper has crossed my mind this season amidst my own dissatisfaction with his performances.

Although there have been many factors in our inferior start to this season compared with last, I am certain that had we had the Steven Gerrard of August to December 2008 instead of the Steven Gerrard of August to December 2009, we would be higher up the table. For many reasons, Gerrard has rarely looked world class this campaign. Paul Tomkins made an astute comment that over the years Gerrard has had the “ability to drag us down as well as pull us up by our bootstraps” and I definitely think there has been evidence of that this campaign.

Gerrard had an excellent last season, as should be expected from a player in his peak years, but as he approaches his 30th birthday, it’s reasonable to question whether last season might be as good as it gets.

Seeing as Tomkins has regularly plugged Kuper & Szymanski’s “Soccernomics...” book, I read it and I noted that advises clubs should buy young players (early 20s) and “sell any player when another club offers more than he is worth”.

There are plenty of examples in recent history of clubs who have got it right and wrong when deciding whether or not to sell their stars as they reach and surpass their peak years. Wenger undoubtedly got it right when selling the likes of Vieira and Henry and others such as Overmars, Petit, Ljungberg and Pires. Fergie meanwhile timed the sales of players like Beckham and Van Nistelrooy to perfection but arguably messed up by not selling the likes of Roy Keane and Gary Neville while they could still command a fee. However, Fergie probably did the right thing in keeping Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes beyond their peak years just as Wenger benefited from retaining the likes of Adams, Keown, Dixon and Winterburn, not to mention Bergkamp beyond the expiry of their transfer values. Meanwhile Chelsea are the best example of what not to do after they signed Andriy Shevchenko for £30m months before his 30th birthday only to see him flop miserably and leave for nothing.

If we were offered £40m for a player who will turn 30 in the summer, from a purely business perspective it would be madness not to consider selling given that his transfer value will rapidly depreciate from here on.

However, that assumes that Gerrard’s sole value is that of his transfer value. In reality his value is more than that. He is an icon for the club and his presence attracts fans and sells shirts from Liverpool to Bangkok. Irrespective of whether or not we finish in the top four, Gerrard’s presence at the club will help attract other good players. Conversely, his sale would deter potential signings from joining us as we would be viewed as a selling club and one in decline. The media, opposition fans, and our own supporters would react negatively assuming the sale was sanctioned solely because of the owners debts and viewing it as evidence we are not a big enough club to retain the world’s elite players rather than seeing any of the practical benefits.

There is a practical argument that Liverpool would fare better with a more balanced squad in terms of quality rather than having a good first XI, OK squad and two absolutely world class outfield players (You can debate the merits of Johnson, Agger, Mascherano, etc as much as you like but Gerrard and Torres are in a different league entirely). Rafa has recently taken quite a bit of flak for investing so much of his summer transfer budget on Johnson and Aquilani rather than buying 3-4 players in the price bracket of Dossena and Riera (note the subtle point I am making here with the carefully selected names!). It’s harder to make successful signings in this price bracket than in the £20+ price bracket that other clubs are able to operate in but given our lack of means, there is a logical argument that rather than investing £23m on another Torres, the manager should split the cash and buy a Kuyt and a Bellamy. Maybe one of the two signings will come good and crucially one can provide back up for the other (e.g. if the Kuyt was off form or injured, the Bellamy could play whereas if Torres is off form or injured we’re stuffed). It is possible (although unlikely given the media agenda against him) that it might ease the pressure on the manager if he did not make more marquee signings as, in theory, less should be expected from less expensive signings.

Ultimately, I would argue that if our two Champions League Finals versus AC Milan proved anything, it was that truly world class players can defy the odds and drag a team to victory (see Gerrard and Carragher in Istanbul) whereas a collection of astutely but relatively cheaply assembled players don’t have that moment of magic in them on the biggest occasions (Athens). Had we had Torres in our team in Athens, we probably would have won. Instead we had Kuyt up front and lost. I’m not knocking Kuyt but there is a world of difference between him and Torres as a lone striker.

Still, if we took £40m for Gerrard, there would be nothing to stop us buying another player for £30-40m IF the owners allowed Rafa to spend the money. And there’s the rub because if Rafa wasn’t able to spend the money, there would be no point in even having the debate. Gerrard would have to be retained. Given the way the Yanks have operated thus far, no one in their right minds can trust that the money would be reinvested in the team and so on that point the debate dies.

However, to round off the debate – if I could be permitted to step into a fantasy land where we could believe that Rafa would be allowed to reinvest any money from Gerrard’s sale, there is still one issue to consider: loyalty.

When Gerrard flirted with Chelsea during the summers of 2004 and 2005, people were queuing up to label him a disloyal and treacherous so and so. If, having proven his loyalty to us, it were the case that Gerrard’s preference would be to stay at Liverpool for the remainder of his career, wouldn’t it be a tad hypocritical for us to call for him to be sold now that he is at the end of his peak years?

Ultimately, Gerrard may well have sacrificed a Premiership winners’ medal or two out of loyalty for us so shouldn’t we repay that loyalty in kind. Gerrard is a Liverpool legend. He has been a hero for a generation and one of the finest players I have ever been blessed to see. If he can end his career as a one-club man and if we can give him a send off like Sami’s (but bigger) then I, for one, would be proud that we placed loyalty to a great servant of our football club over money.

For that reason, I would not sell Steven Gerrard for any price.

Sunday, 3 January 2010

I declare Silly Season open!

With the arrival of the first Sunday of the transfer window the silly season is now officially open. Expect Liverpool to be linked with a host of players who are as likely to be playing for us in February as Xabi Alonso.

So far we have been linked with Ruud Van Nistelrooy, Rafael Van der Vaart, Maxi Rodriguez, Arda Turan, Milan Jovanovic, Ivan Gonzalez, Victor Moses, Emile Heskey and Vasil Torosidis.

There appears to be substance in the rumours about Rodriguez. The Argentinian winger is a close friend of Torres from their time together at Atletico and with Mascherano, his international teammate and captain. He is out of favour at Atletico and out of contract in the summer so a loan move with the option to sign him in the summer would appear to be an excellent opportunity for Liverpool and the player. At 29 (yesterday), he is not one for the future but could add some much needed quality on the flanks in the remainder of this season and possibly next.

I expect this one to happen and look forward to it.

I understand there is absolutely no truth whatsoever in the Sun’s claims that Liverpool will be signing Ruud Van Nistelrooy on loan. This is typical media bullshit. Van Nistelrooy is 33 years old, would want sky-high wages and plays in a completely different style to Torres. Rafa has even stated he has no interest in the player so this one is not going to happen.

I also consider it highly unlikely that Rafa would bring in an experienced forward who would potentially restrict the progress of Ngog and, if kept beyond this season, of Nemeth. For that reason I would also discount Liverpool’s reported interest in Standard Liege’s 28-year old Serbian forward Milan Jovanovic.

I can’t see Heskey rejoining us. I thought he would have been a good signing in the 2009 January transfer window but he joined Villa instead. A year on, a can’t see Villa selling to us and with the player turning 32 this month, he is a less attractive prospect. He is also a wuss who lacked the bottle to make the most of his talent during his time at Anfield and his goalscoring record is unimpressive.

Van der Vaart is another player linked with us. I can’t see this one happening. Despite falling down the pecking order at Real Madrid, Van der Vaart is a Dutch international who is soon to turn 27 and still has a lot to offer. Therefore, Real would want a decent fee for him. He is a similar type of player to Alberto Aquilani on whom we have recently spent £20m so I really don’t see any truth in this rumour.

Speculation linking us with Greek full-back Vasil Torosidis sounds more credible. Clearly our scouts have been in Greece recently to watch Kyrgiakos. Unlike the latter, Torosidis is just 24 and is a player with his best years ahead of him. We do need cover for Johnson at right-back and players from Greece generally don’t command high fees. Assuming that Liverpool’s interest in the player is genuine, if Olympiakos are prepared to deal for between £1.5-3.5m, this could happen.

We regularly snap up youngsters from the lower divisions so the interest in Victor Moses from Crystal Palace sounds feasible. After we signed Jesus (Joaquin Fernandez) in the summer, it makes sense that Moses should follow.

I know little about Malaga’s Ivan Gonzalez but I’m not keen simply because the last player we signed from Spain called Gonzalez was Mark and the last defender we signed from Malaga was Josemi. Enough said.

Arda Turan’s CV looks promising although, having played exclusively in Turkey, he has never been tested in one of the biggest European Leagues. His International record is pretty good. I wonder how much the current speculation emanates from the player himself after he stated: “I want to play in major leagues and my dream team is Liverpool”. He has been likened to Lionel Messi in terms of his playing style but can also play on the left wing so you would have to wonder where he would play if Rodriguez joined as expected. One to watch.

In terms of exits, the chances of Voronin and Dossena going hinge on whether buyers can be found who will offer them high enough wages. If the club can recoup some cash on either, I’m certain they will be offloaded. For understandable reasons, Rafa gave Voronin a second chance at the club this season but the Ukranian was so bad he was actually allowed to go on holiday during the Christmas period as the manager had no use for him.

Potentially our most saleable out of favour player is Ryan Babel. If we sold him in this transfer window we would certainly take a loss. From a business perspective, it would be better to keep him, try to develop him and sell him at a time when we can optimise his transfer value (for example, if he gave a good showing in this summer’s World Cup). From a practical point of view, if his sale could generate the cash to recruit a player who could add value on the pitch, it would be worth taking a loss on the dickhead.

Fiorentina are said to be interested so we will have to wait and see.

The priorities have not changed massively since the summer. We needed a winger, a right-back and a striker then. Now we need wide midfielders/wingers with pace and quality for both wings and cover for both left and right-back. I can see the logic of not recruiting a striker given the promise Ngog has shown but you have to consider the scenario that if Torres was injured for a big game (as happened in the first half of the season), would Ngog alone be enough? I would rather have another proven striker in reserve.

Insua has shown promise but also vulnerability this season. While he deserves future opportunities at the club, it is not ideal for him to be the first choice left-back. Aurelio has been shocking this campaign and Dossena is a defensive liability. I would like to see us sign a player to be first choice left-back with Insua providing back-up. We also need an Arbeloa-type back-up for Glenn Johnson at right-back. Degen is useless and Kelly would fit the bill if he wasn’t injured.