Sunday, 28 March 2010

Liverpool v Sunderland: Preview

It is worrying to see Spurs 7 points ahead of us after an equal number of games but not unexpected. I had been hoping they would drop points away at Stoke but I fully expected them to beat Portsmouth at home. They now face a potentially tricky away trip to Sunderland before those back-to-back games against Arsenal, Chelsea and Man Ure. If they don’t drop at least 8 points from those three games, there may be nothing we can do to overtake them. However, I remain confident. The other game I can see Spurs dropping points in is Man City away. Bolton should be safe from relegation by the time they visit White Hart Lane and Burnley will be down on the last day of the season so neither should have much of a fight in them. I said last week I could see Spurs dropping 13/27 points and finishing on 66. Now I’m predicting they’ll drop 10/21 finishing on 69.

Our task remains the same: get 70 points. After our defeat at OT last week, we now need 6 wins and a draw. The toughest games on paper are Chelsea (h) and Birmingham (a). We now need 4 points from those two games and maximum points from our home games against Fulham, West Ham and Hull and from our away game at Burnley.

Sunderland at home is a potential banana-skin. Between 1996 and 2003, we drew 4 out of the five home games against the Black Cats and managed only a solitary 1-0 win. We’ve won the last three home games against them so hopefully we will see that form continue today. There is of course, the Steve Bruce factor to take into consideration.

Rafa’s record versus Bruce in the Premiership reads: Pld 9, W 1, D 5, L 3. It’s mystifyingly shocking. The jinx was finally broken last season when we came from behind to beat Bruce’s Wigan side at Anfield but since then a late penalty conceded by Lucas resulted in a 1-1 draw at the JJB while Bruce’s Sunderland side beat an injury-decimated Liverpool side earlier this season courtesy of THAT goal by the beach ball.

Bruce has done a fantastic job at the Stadium of Light spending £34.5 million in the summer (about £18m net) to transform Sunderland from Premiership strugglers to Premiership strugglers though curiously you never hear figures on his spending bandied about in the media.

I hope we stuff the bastards today but as always I’ll take any Liverpool win. It would be nice to see Aquilani pulling the strings in midfield again as he did against Portsmouth and some more goals for Torres (who has a decent record of scoring against Sunderland).

Come on Reds!

Saturday, 20 March 2010

I was talking with a mate last night about the battle for fourth place. I personally don’t think we will finish fourth now. I expect Aston Villa, Man City and Spurs to all drop points between now and the end of the season and if we could take 19 points from our remaining 8 games (6 wins, a draw and a defeat) I think our 70 points could be enough to pip those teams. That is a big 'if' though.

Looking at our remaining fixtures, Man Ure (a), Sunderland (h), Birmingham (a), Fulham (h), West Ham (h), Burnley (a), Chelsea (h) and Hull (a), that is certainly possible. You would expect us to win against Sunderland (h), Fulham (h), West Ham (h), Burnley (a) and Hull (a) giving us 15 points. If we put the Man Ure game down as the one we can afford to lose, we would be looking for a win and a draw from Chelsea at Anfield and our bogey team Birmingham away.

Spurs have a much harder fixture list including Stoke (a), Sunderland (a), Arsenal (h), Chelsea (a), Man Ure (a) and Man City (a). With the Arsenal, Chelsea and Man Ure games coming back-to-back, confidence could be wiped out before they reach May. Of their remaining 9 fixtures and potential 27 points, I would expect them to drop at least 13 points leaving them on 66 points.

City are the team I fear most but they face tough games against Fulham (a) and Everton (h) next after which their run-in includes Man Ure (h), Arsenal (a), Aston Villa (a), then Spurs (h) back-to-back. Had they not won 4-2 at Stamford Bridge, I would have a more pessimistic view of their chances but given the number of games they have drawn this season – particularly against inferior opposition – they are just as likely to drop points at home to Wigan and Birmingham as away to Arsenal. Overall of their 10 remaining fixtures and potential 30 points, I would expect them to drop 12 points leaving them with 68 points. For that to happen I am looking for them to take 4 points from Fulham (a) and Everton (h), 6 from Wigan (h) and Burnley (a), 3 from Birmingham (a), Man Ure (a) and Arsenal (h), and 5 from Villa (h), Spurs (h) and West Ham (a).

Villa’s remaining fixtures look less daunting than those of Spurs and City. I can see them taking maximum points from Wolves (h) and Sunderland (h). They might be looking at 6 points from Chelsea (a), Bolton (a) and Everton (h) and another 6 from Portsmouth (a) and Hull (a). Finally, I reckon they could be looking at 5 points from Birmingham (h), Man City (a), Blackburn (h). That gives them 23 points from a potential 30 meaning they would finish on 71. However, to do this, Villa would have to show a consistency that has eluded them this season and I am mindful of how they crumpled in the run-in last season.

Since fourth place was rewarded with a Champions League qualifying spot, no team has amassed as many as 70 points and finished lower than fourth. For us, that has to be the aim and if we achieve 70 and it still isn’t enough, we would have to accept that the standard this season has been higher than ever before.

My worry is that we have shown nothing to suggest we are capable of going on the winning run that is required for us to get 70 points. The one thing in our favour is that unlike Villa, Spurs and City, we have shown inconsistency and dropped points without being able to field our strongest XI for much of the season. Villa, Spurs and City are in the mix with us having been able to field their strongest teams for much of their campaigns. Now that Torres, Johnson, Benayoun and Gerrard are available for selection, it is possible we will improve several notches. However, we need players like Gerrard to considerably raise their own standard of performances as names on a team sheet don’t win points.

I’ll refer back to my assumptions here in a couple of weeks to see how results are panning out. The one certainty is that bar Man Ure tomorrow and the Chelsea and Brum games, all our other fixtures are “must-win”. None of the other contenders have that same pressure.

Friday, 19 March 2010

Man Ure v Liverpool

I won’t be making any predictions ahead of the Man Ure game on Sunday. I’ve learned from experience that my predictions for these fixtures tend to be wide of the mark.

In 2001-02 and 2003-04, I feared we would be well-beaten but both times we won 1-0. Last season I thought we would be absolutely slaughtered – especially once the Scum took the lead – but we went on to win 4-1. In 2006-07, I was quietly confident but we put in one of the lamest performances from any Liverpool side at Old Trafford and allowed them to stroll to a 2-0 win.

As with Merseyside Derbies, anything is possible in these fixtures. All I can hope for is maximum effort from our players, fair treatment from the referee, and for a bit of good fortune on the day. I’d take a draw now if offered. I would even think long and hard about taking a 1-0 defeat. As long as we don’t get mauled, I can live with the outcome.

Thursday, 11 March 2010

Time for a change

There will be numerous different reactions to this post. Some people will think I am an idiot who knows nothing about football. Some will think I have absolutely lost my marbles. Some will disagree but will at least appreciate the basis of my argument. Some (though I expect not many) will agree. None-the-less, this is my opinion and is based on having seen every one of Liverpool’s matches this season.

Let me start with the least controversial (which is like dropping a H- bomb and saying I still have a nuke in reserve). I think it’s time end Jamie Carragher’s Liverpool career...



I’ll just let that sink in...



There are two reasons why Jamie Carragher will end his career without having won a Premiership winners' medal: (1) he hasn't been good enough to give a team of contenders that little bit extra, and (2) he hasn't been in a squad good enough to win one without him giving them that little bit extra.

Don't get me wrong, Carra has been a fantastic Liverpool player and one I will remember with great fondness in years to come. His performance in Istanbul was probably the greatest individual performance I have and possibly will ever see. He thoroughly deserved his Champions League Winners' medal unlike many of the average players who pocketed one as a result of his performance that night (e.g. Kewell, Traore, Josemi(!), etc.). However, people commonly confuse Carra's 'Never-Say-Die' attitude (perfectly illustrated in that match) with a 'Will-To-Win' attitude. Carra is the ultimate cup player who will give every last drop of sweat and blood to keep his team in the competition. A ‘Never-Say-Day’ attitude is perfect in cup competitions but to win League titles a different attitude is required. Last season when it mattered, Carra was too happy to take clean sheets from games like West Ham and Fulham at home when the team needed a defender more in the mould of John Terry, Rio Ferdinand, William Gallas or Nemanja Vidic - defenders who would push the team forward in search of a winning goal and maybe even score one themselves. Those players have the ‘Will-To-Win’; Carra only knows how to avoid defeat. Carra's goal return in a 14-year career at Liverpool is absolutely shocking but it only tells half the story.

Carra's safety-first approach has held back this Liverpool team too often for me. Though the team still did exceptionally well last season with Carra contributing significantly, ultimately, as the team's leader on the pitch (which he is despite Gerrard wearing the armband), I feel that had he shown a bit more ambition in certain games, it wouldn't have mattered what dodgy decisions went Man Ure's way. In the end, Carra was good enough to put us in the thick of the title race but not to win it.

Worse players than Carra have won Premiership medals. Had he been in United's or Chelsea's squads in the last five years, he could have picked up medals and done so deservedly but his contribution would have been that of a squad player, not a key player. Like Phil Neville at the Bitter People's Club, Carra has always been a big fish in a small pond at Anfield. The difference is Neville spent a few years as a squad player at Man Ure and picked up a few medals for his troubles.

There has been no season during Carra's 14 where you can say Liverpool should have won the League and maybe as few as three where you could say we could have (1996-97, 2001-02 and last season). Overall, you have to say Carra has been at the wrong club for much of his career but it has been to our benefit and so I applaud his loyalty and commitment to our club. However, enough is enough. Liverpool can't move forward with one foot stuck in the past. The club needs less negative defenders and more importantly less negative leaders on the pitch. Ideally, Carra would be relegated to the role of squad player but I can’t see a man who has battled all his life quietly accepting a place on the bench while his presence there would only add to the pressure on Skrtel and Agger and invite criticism from the stands. Realistically he has to be played or moved on.

Moving Carra on would be a gamble as we would need Skrtel and Agger to stay fit and in top form (which neither have this season) and we would need a new centre-half. It is clear that we can't afford or attract a top quality centre-half so it could be that keeping Carra is the only option – even though his best years are evidently behind him. That doesn’t bode well for the team’s future as it would effectively be an acceptance of inferior quality to previous seasons as well as retaining a potentially problematic player in the dressing room.

Now for the nuke...

A couple of months ago, I debated the pros and cons of potentially selling Steven Gerrard. I concluded that I would not sell him. I have changed my mind.

No player should be bigger than the club but I fear Steven Gerrard is in danger of being so. This season he has reminded me so much of Thierry Henry in his final season at Arsenal or of Alan Shearer at Newcastle. Showing indifference during games, scowling at and berating teammates and generally looking like a kid who wants to pick up his ball and storm off home, Gerrard has been far from a positive influence on the team this season. It was no coincidence to me that one of the most committed team performances this season at home against Spurs occurred without Gerrard in the squad but was followed with a wretched performance at Wolves with Gerrard back in the team. Too often players have looked to play passes to their skipper instead of better options and appeared afraid to take on chances themselves for fear of a rollicking from their volatile captain.

The stories that came out of Arsenal after the sale of Henry to Barca suggested that Henry had become something of a bully to the younger players and they certainly played like a team released from shackles once the iconic Frenchman had left the club.

Who is to say that moving on Gerrard at this point wouldn’t have a similar positive impact at Anfield? How can it do anyone any good when the man in the captain’s armband is so visibly pissed off with all around him?

In my previous post, I argued that Liverpool effectively couldn’t afford to sell Gerrard but now I ask can we afford another season like this from Gerrard? Undoubtedly he has been more of a hinder than a help in this campaign and while one lousy season won’t significantly reduce his transfer value, if one became two (with a dire showing at the World Cup in between) what would he be worth after that?

If we were to sell a 30-year old Gerrard this summer, he could be the Shevchenko we saddle some stupid club with while we get £30 million or more to invest in our squad. If we don’t and if we get another season like this from him, we will have a troublesome 31-year old on our books for whom we would be lucky to get £12m.

When I had been clinging onto the romantic notion of players playing for their home-town clubs for their full careers, I had the likes of Paul Scholes, Gary Neville and Ryan Giggs in mind. However, where those players differ from Gerrard and Carra is that those players won everything worth winning in their heydays. Their career ambitions were fulfilled years ago and everything since has been the icing on the cake. Gerrard and Carra have had the icing but never the cake and now their hunger has turned to frustration with the realisation that if they were to win the League now – as looks increasingly unlikely – it would be courtesy of other key players rather than down to them. For Carra, the lingering hope is of a Martin Keown-esque League winner’s medal when he really wanted a Tony Adams-esque medal. For Steven Gerrard, see Bryan Robson.

Sadly I fear that far from helping their younger teammates to help them win the honour they wish they’d won in their peak years, Carra and Gerrard and more likely to harm confidence and disrupt team spirit.

Would Rafa be able to move them on? I seriously doubt it. Rafa simply does not have enough support inside and outside the club. Too many people place too much importance on Gerrard and, to a lesser extent, on Carragher. However, if Rafa can’t sell either or both if he deems it in the best interests of the club then his position is untenable and he should walk away. Some Liverpool fans would be delighted to see that but I wouldn’t. It’s our number 8 and number 23 that I am ready to see the backs of.

Reina for captain!

Lille 1 Liverpool 0 : Naming and Shaming

Ground Hog Day...?

Not really. The scoreline was the same but the team's overall performance was 100% better than the absolute dross on display at Wigan on Monday though a minority of individuals within the team showed little improvement.

Funny how Channel Five's commentator immediately switched from describing Liverpool's performance as professional to atrocious as soon as Lille scored. Suddenly "the goal had been coming". I couldn't see it coming. (In fairness I actually thought Five's commentary was one of the best I've heard in ages.)

I was disappointed with the way the second half performance had declined after a promising restart but I never thought Lille looked more likely to score than us. As with our last game in France, we were made to pay an exaggerated price for missing a first half one-on-one. In Lens it was Voronin, tonight it was Babel. Overall, a 0-0 would have been a fair result. At 1-0 to Lille it is game on at Anfield.

We failed to overturn a 1-0 away defeat at Benfica a few years ago but had our own 1-0 first leg advantage overturned in Leverkusen back in 2002 so it is certainly not game over. If Lille score, we would need a response of St Etienne or Olympiakos proportions but the fact I can make those references proves we are capable of providing one.

A win, a draw and/or an away goal would have been nice but I'm not overly concerned by the scoreline. Of greater concern for me was the performances (yet again) of certain players.

After the Blackburn game, I thought Stevie G had finally turned the corner and was about to start performing at something like the level we have come to expect over the last six or seven seasons. Instead he was absolutely atrocious at Wigan giving arguably his worst ever performance in the Red shirt and only fractionally better here in France tonight.

Similar sentiments apply to Dirk Kuyt. While he at least has experienced a spell of decent form this season (albeit a very brief one), he was beyond woeful at Wigan and dire again tonight. Overall, this has been Kuyt's worst season at the club.

While I share his frustrations, I cannot condone Fernando Torres' persistent petulence which has earned him so many yellow cards this season. It isn't right that virtually every time an opponent goes to ground he is awarded a free-kick while Torres has been constantly bludgeoned and assaulted throughout the season receiving no protection from referees but shouting abuse at them clearly is doing little to help his cause and simply encourages opposing players and fans. Meanwhile, if our No. 9 had taken his chances in our last two games, we would be talking about two wins instead of two 1-0 defeats.

Jamie Carragher... I would be quite happy to live the rest of my life without seeing another Jamie Carragher backpass from around the halfway line. I will elaborate on my views on Carra in another post coming soon.

Ryan Babel... Given another chance to impress and at least tried hard. Ran here and there. Tried to be creative and certainly added an attacking dimension to the team that has been missing. Unfortunately, he wasted a lot of possession and most of his attempts to dribble past players achieved precisely nothing. For me, Nabil El Zahr was just as effective in a brief late cameo which says it all. That said, I would stick with Babel as the challenge from the likes of Kuyt, Riera and Rodriguez for wide positions is non-existent.

Albert Riera... Just fucking shit. Needs shooting.

The morons will undoubtedly criticise the manager but it isn't the manager out there playing shit on the pitch. We have all seen the standards that Gerrard, Kuyt, Torres, Carragher, Babel and Riera are capable of. Rafa hasn't trained them to be shit but individually and collectively that is what they have been for much if not all of this season. Personally I am sick of seeing it and I would be more than happy if some of those players were no longer at the club next season.

Monday, 8 March 2010

Wigan 1 Liverpool 0: Thanks for ruining my Dad's birthday you useless fucking bastards

I'm writing this immediately after the match and as such I may be more emotional than rational.

With Torres and Benayoun back in the starting line up and Johnson on the bench, finally there was reason for optimism. What happens? The team were shocking. To a man. The only players I can exempt from criticism are Reina and Mascherano.

In the case of Torres, his finishing was shite but in fairness he is short of match practice after his long lay off. However, he had about five decent scoring chances and failed to work the keeper. That was more chances than the entire Wigan team had in the game and it therefore was a key factor in our defeat.

Just as he looked like he was turning the corner, Gerrard was absolutely shocking yet again. It seemed as if virtually every pass he played in the first half went straight to a Wigan player or straight off the pitch altogether. The stats would surely show he completed more passes than not but this was a dreadful performance from the man who has undeservedly worn the captain's armband this season.

Jamie Carragher was also a big disappointment tonight. Clearly struggling on a shocking pitch, Jamie experienced mixed fortunes in his passing and his reading of the game. That I can forgive but his pedestrian and negative passing when on the ball was inexcusable. Not for the first time, I feel Carra's safety first approach and inability to contribute anything tangible to the team's attack undermined the team.

Maxi Rodriguez contributed nothing of value yet somehow evaded being substituted - presumably because Rafa forgot he was on the pitch.

Insua rarely looked comfortable and, while I felt Kyrgiakos did OK (excellent when clearing off his goal-line after Carra's fuck up), I felt the back four as a unit looked totally disorganised. That's not unexpected given its makeshift nature but still it is hard to credit a player when all around him is chaos.

I've tried to avoid being critical of Lucas because I feel he gets an unfair press from Liverpool fans looking for an easy scapegoat but tonight he was poor. As a midfield unit, he and Gerrard both played far too deep - especially in the first half - and left the attack too isolated.

Yossi Benayoun tried his best but given he had to start any mazy run at the defence from inside his own half, he was onto a loser from the beginning. Not his best game. Clearly rusty. One to forget.

Dirk Kuyt... Wigan's best player. Constantly won back possession for Wigan and played a crucial role in setting up their goal. If only Liverpool had a player like that on their side! Kuyt has increasingly divided my opinions this season. In some performances (Everton and Spurs at home spring to mind) he has been outstanding but in others he has been shocking and at least twice (tonight and at Fulham) he has actually cost us points by setting up the opposition to score.

When the end of season inquest into why we have been so much poorer than last season takes place, key reasons will be the dip in form of Kuyt as well as Gerrard, Carragher, Riera and Skrtel.

As for the subs, Johnson looked like he couldn't run and probably shouldn't have been risked; Aquilani looked better than Lucas but not much, and Babel was pretty ineffective but should have been given much longer and should have replaced Rodriguez who was useless.

I now believe that the race for fourth place is over from our perspective. I don't blame Rafa. I blame the Americans. I still think that with the failure of Spurs, City and Villa to really stake a convincing claim for the fourth Champions League spot that it was ours for the taking but in the cold light of day, our players and our squad have not been good enough.

Too many key players have been injured and off-form too often this season and with insufficient quality in depth, we were never able to cope. Despite that, we should have had several more points that we were robbed of by bent referees but ultimately I feel that would have papered over some serious cracks.

I'm now more convinced than ever that we need to win the Europa Cup as it may be the last competition we have any chance of winning for a long time.

After this season, barring the miraculous sale of the club to a mega-rich Arab, we need to recoup as much money on assets like Gerrard as we can and stock the squad full of tall physically imposing Hondurans and Ecuadorians to aid us in the long-ball game that the Premiership has become.

It won't be pretty but for the love of the Liverbird, I'll still be drawn to watch it and suffer through it.

Sunday, 7 March 2010

Wigan v Liverpool: Preview

Shocking stat of the day: Liverpool have not won a single Monday night fixture under Rafa Benitez.

We have won on Mondays on three occasions but each was during the afternoon either on Boxing Day or the New Years full League programmes. On Monday nights our record reads:

20/09/05 v Man U (a) 1-2
21/01/08 v Villa (h) 2-2
01/12/08 v West Ham (h) 0-0
19/01/09 v Everton (h) 1-1
24/08/09 v Villa (h) 1-3
09/11/09 v Birmingham (h) 2-2

Pld. 6 W 0 D 4 L 2 F 7 10

It’s pretty depressing stuff and in the case of our last Monday night fixture ESPN took the piss pitting us against our bogey team in our bogey fixture slot.

The good news is the antidote is at hand. It is Wigan’s raison d'ĂȘtre to assist Liverpool FC in banishing hoodoos.

- In 2005-06, Peter Crouch hadn’t scored in his first 18 appearances until Wigan came to town.
- In 2006-07, Liverpool hadn’t won or scored from open play in their first 7 League away games until we visited the JJB.
- In 2007-08, Yossi Benayoun scored his first League goal for Liverpool at the JJB.
- In 2008-09, Rafa had failed to beat a team managed by Steve Bruce in the League in 6 attempts until Bruce showed up at Anfield managing Wigan.

(The 2007-08 example isn’t the best but I preferred it to: In 2007-08, Wigan had failed to take a point from or score against Liverpool in 5 attempts until they visited Anfield – not really a hoodoo we wanted to end!)

I am confident we will do the business at the JJB. We’ve got key players back fit (there’s even a possibility Johnson might make his return from injury) and with Stevie in the middle and Yossi and Torres back in the side, we actually played some attacking football at times against Blackburn for the first time in a very (very) long time. It was great to see and I hope to see much more of it in the remainder of this season.