My hopes, fears and expectations for 2011-2012

On the eve of a new season, what are my hopes, fears and expectations for the 2011-2012 season?

The ultimate hope is obviously that Liverpool win the Premiership. However, that is simply not realistic. Man Utd, Chelsea and Man City will compete for the title. City should be favourites given the squad they have amassed while both Man Utd and Chelsea have been there and done it before. Those three teams will finish in positions 1 to 3. I expect City to blow their title challenge as failure is in their club’s DNA. I wouldn’t rule out a 2nd place finish for them which would mean either United or Chelsea finishing 3rd. Chelsea or Man Utd will be champions. I’d prefer Chelsea of the two but my head says it will be United again.

Then we have a battle for the fourth Champions League spot and I believe this will be a three-way battle between Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs with Spurs finishing sixth. I honestly couldn’t call it between Liverpool and Arsenal. Since 1998, Arsenal have not failed to qualify for the Champions League. However, from the point where Kenny replaced Hodgson last season, we out-performed them in the League. We have strengthened whereas they are desperately trying to retain their best players. Should the likes of Fabregas and Nasri be sold, they will be weaker but if they were kept, would they truly give their all for a cause they wanted to abandon?

With Arsene Wenger under increasing pressure after six trophyless seasons, Arsenal have never been more vulnerable but we will have little room for error if we are to take advantage.

Fourth place is our target and my hope is that we get it – my fear is we don’t. Finishing fourth will mean we can build on our squad from a position of being able to attract some of Europe’s better players who would otherwise be deterred by the lack of Champions League football. Finishing outside of the top four will raise questions about our ability to retain the likes of Suarez and Reina. It is crucial for the development of the club that we achieve this objective.

On the playing front, my ultimate hope is obviously that every player excels. That is unrealistic though. I expect Luis Suarez to shine once more and I believe we have made an excellent signing in Stewart Downing. I do harbour concerns over Andy Carroll though.

Looking at him, I’m far from convinced he has the qualities to be a top, top striker. He looks slow, cumbersome and pretty crude in his playing style – basically the exact opposite of Luis Suarez. While I can see him causing problems to Premiership defenders and being a threat from set pieces, he does not appear conducive to swift, pass-and-move attacking football. Barring the City game, we played far better when he wasn’t in the team last season though, in fairness, the lack of quality on the wings won’t have brought the best out of him.

Ultimately my biggest worry is that having sold Fernando Torres and spent £35m on a replacement, I just don’t see Carroll ever being as good. You could argue that Suarez offsets that to a certain extent but then Suarez was bought to play alongside Torres; not instead. Carroll was the replacement for Torres and I just don’t believe that Carroll and Suarez is better than Torres and Suarez.

I hope Carroll shines this season. I hope he can develop into a player like Didier Drogba at his best. I just worry that if he flops, we have little in the way of contingency. With Ngog clearly not rated by the current regime, it leaves only Kuyt to fill in up top. Personally, I trust Kuyt more than I trust Carroll but, as effective as Kuyt can be when leading the line, there is a glass ceiling to what we can achieve in the League with him leading our attack.

To be fair to Carroll, Fernando Torres raised the bar in terms of what we can expect from strikers. Between Michael Judas Owen and him, the strikers we fielded included Neil Mellor, Milan Baros, Florent Sinama-Pongolle, Djibril Cisse, Fernando Morientes, Robbie Fowler II, Peter Crouch, Craig Bellamy and Dirk Kuyt. We also signed Voronin just before Torres. While some of those players did OK, none were of the standard of Torres. In spite of that, in those 3 years between Owen and Torres, we won the Champions League, the FA Cup and reached another Champions League Final. After signing Torres, our best achievement was being runner up in the Premiership in a season where Torres missed half the League games. That proves you don’t need a striker of Torres’ quality to be successful. Carroll can eclipse many of those players to have played up front pre-Torres. Come the end of the season, if Carroll has shown he is good enough to lead the line in a team challenging for the League and Champions League, he will stay; if not we will strengthen.

My other big concern is over Charlie Adam. He strikes me as a decent Premiership player and he shone as a big fish at Blackpool last season. I just don’t see him being one of the League’s top midfielders. He’s another who lacks pace and seems to look for the ball over the top a bit too often for my liking. People rave about his set pieces but on the evidence of preseason, he should be behind Aquilani and Downing in the pecking order.

Ultimately, I’m concerned that Aquilani may be sold and Adam played instead. Aquilani is a quality player. Yes, doubts remain over his suitability for the English League but he deserves a chance to prove himself. If he comes good, he will be twice, maybe three times the player Adam is. Adam is simply not in the same bracket of quality.

We have a lot of central midfielders at the club including Lucas, Gerrard, Henderson, Adam, Aquilani, Meireles, Shelvey, Spearing and Poulsen. I would question how many of those offer proven high quality. How many would get into the first teams of Chelsea or either of the Manchester clubs? Aquilani is the one player potentially good enough to play for those teams while Henderson has the long-term potential. I'd be very frustrated if Aquilani was sold without being given a chance this season.

There are serious question marks hanging over Gerrard and Carragher this season. Carra will face the same questions every season until he hangs up his boots. Every bad game will lead people to say “his legs have gone”, etc. He’s had it for a couple of seasons now and to his credit, he has generally come good over the course of the season. The concern is that there is no one threatening his place in the team. With Agger’s injury problems and Skrtel’s failure to mature into a top centre-half, Carra remains a first choice centre-half. His place won’t come under threat from Wilson or Kyrgiakos so we have to hope he has a good season.

As an aside, I also fear that Agger and Aurelio will continue to be injury-prone in the coming year. Without [as yet] having signed a left-back, Aurelio is our best player for that position and Agger is our best centre-half. Our prospects will be better with both in the team.

After successive injury-interrupted seasons, can Gerrard play enough this season to really contribute? Assuming he can, can he rediscover the form that once made him our best player after two seasons of piss poor performances? Where will he play? Does he have the defensive discipline to anchor the midfield? Will he be prepared to play on the right of midfield? Will he continue to pull rank over set pieces meaning every corner is wasted? Will he take the penalties given Kuyt’s 100% record? Will he accept being rested for his and the team’s good should the management deem it necessary?

Big questions!

As one of the few truly outstanding players in the team, we have to hope that Gerrard can have a major positive impact in the coming season.

While deadwood remains on the books, there is always the fear that they will be used. Christian Poulsen, Joe Cole and Brad Jones have not been shifted. Brad Jones won’t play and will most likely follow Gulacsi and Hansen out on loan. Poulsen is another matter. Who in their right mind would sign him? Even Hodgson hasn’t tried to bring him to West Brom (hypocrite!). Despite that, I think Kenny is savvy enough to know that the Dane should never again don the red shirt of Liverpool in a competitive match.

Joe Cole is another story. Steve Clarke seems to rate him from their time together at Chelsea. I don’t see him being a regular starter but I could see him featuring from the bench. Is that so bad? I just think he is one of the most brainless footballers I have ever seen and I don’t want him near our first team.

I haven’t even mentioned the likes of Degen and El Zhar. I'm also a bit disappointed to see the Greek [Kyrgiakos] still in the squad. I had hoped we would strengthen in this area.

I also can’t see where Raul Meireles will fit in this season. In many ways, that is a positive as I don’t rate him as anything more than a decent squad player and if he does force his way into the first team, it will mean he is doing very well indeed.

So lots of questions. Lots of unknowns. Bring it on!!!!

Three to go down

Once again it is time to pick the three teams I predict will be relegated. Last season I went for Blackpool, Wolves and West Brom scoring just 1 out 3. Hodgson really did fuck up everything last season! Ultimately, West Ham were staggeringly bad while Birmingham's relegation was a huge shock.

For likely strugglers this season, look no further than teams beginning with ‘W’.

I’d love to see Roy Hodgson get the relegation he so richly deserves at West Brom. With signings such as Zoltan Gera (32), Gareth McAuley (31) and Marton Fulop (28), Roy is continuing his policy of signing old, predominantly shit players with no resale value. Typical of the journeyman manager, his signings are intended for short-term impact and show no signs of long term planning – after all, why plan for the long term when you rarely stop at a club for longer than two years?

Roy’s basic football tactics designed to eke out the bare minimum of points required to avoid relegation appear well-suited to West Brom. In another season I’d make them favourites for the drop – especially as they have never survived two successive seasons in the Premiership before – but there are worse-equipped teams in the League this year.

That said, a bad start could leave them fighting an uphill battle and given their first two opponents are Man Utd and Chelsea, their third fixture at home to Stoke will be a “must-win” game. With Norwich (a), Swansea (a), Fulham (h), Sunderland (a) and Wolves (h) next, if West Brom sit in the relegation zone come mid-October, they will be in serious trouble.

Wigan will go down sooner or later. They like to flirt with relegation and will most likely do so again but I’d expect them to stay up this year. They have a bizarre habit of getting hammered by crap teams yet beating or drawing with decent sides. Don’t be surprised if they lose 5-0 to Swansea yet draw with Liverpool.

Wolves are fucking detestable. Epitomised by their shithead manager Mick McCarthy – aka Fergie’s mate – they will mix it up and provide some lousy, ugly, unwatchable football matches in this Premiership season. Sadly, I think their experience of scrapping for survival over the last two seasons gives them an edge over the newly promoted teams.

Aston Villa threatened to relegate themselves under Gerard Houllier last year but Randy Lerner has bizarrely replaced the Frenchman with Alex McLeish – the man who relegated rivals Birmingham against all odds last season. Quite why, nobody knows but with a manager who has been there and done it before and with their new policy of selling their best players, you can’t rule out relegation for Aston Villa. It would, however, be a major shock and I would expect Villa to remain one of the 7 ever-present teams in the Premiership’s history.

Blackburn are in total chaos. Bought by Indian chicken farmers who bizarrely sacked Sam Allardyce only to promote his number two Steve Kean beyond his level of competence, their transfer business so far has only weakened them. I would be stunned if Kean lasted the season in charge. I’d tip them as the established Premiership team most likely to break into the bottom three.

I expect Stoke to be safe this year. Ditto Sunderland and Fulham.

So my three to go down?

Norwich, Swansea and QPR.

I can’t see any of the teams coming up having the quality to stay up. I will also predict that Neil Warnock will be sacked by QPR before the season’s end.