Hodgson: Wrong Man

Calling for the dismissal of a Liverpool manager is not an action to be taken lightly. Doing so after just five League games is an open invitation to others to label you impatient, irrational, unreasonable or a ‘knee-jerker’. Wishing to be fair and objective, I feel as though it would be inappropriate to say that I believe it would be in the best interests of Liverpool FC if Roy Hodgson was not its manager. I feel as though I have to ‘give him time’ and that to not do so would be considered unreasonable.

The truth is, if I hold back it’s because I think others think I should and I don’t want to be judged as a rash, irrational knee-jerker. The truth is I did not believe Hodgson was up to the job before his appointment so I don’t think I should be accused of negativity for continuing to hold that belief in the absence of any evidence to the contrary. That doesn’t mean I want or have wanted him to fail. In the earliest weeks of the season, I was even encouraged to the point where I thought he might prove me wrong to doubt his credentials. I do believe he is capable of improving things from where we are today and I acknowledge he has been hindered by a tough opening fixture list but I do not believe he will improve things to the point where I believe the team is performing as well as it could under a different manager. I’m realistic enough to accept we can’t attract a top class manager but at this point I think we would fare better under Dalglish or even Hughes, O’Neill or, dare I say it, Moyes. I’m not saying I want any of them to be the next manager but the point is I think there are others who could do a better job than Hodgson has to date.

That isn’t a reaction solely to his first eleven games in charge. I am not (as someone suggested) labeling him a bad manager after one ‘bad’ season (not that we’ve even reached October yet). Hodgson has had a management career spanning 30 years and his CV is there for all to see. I’ve never thought him a bad manager but nor does he strike me as anything above average. As much as I would like him to achieve whatever can constitute success at Liverpool, past precedents don’t suggest that will be the case.

We can only hypothesize as to what situation we would be in under different managers and it’s possible we might have had the same number of points but I very much doubt another manager would have us playing the same way. It is that method of playing that prevents me having confidence that things will turn around. To me, Hodgson appears to be attempting to recreate the playing style that brought him ‘success’ at Fulham and I don’t think it will work given the different statures of the clubs and expectations of the fans.

I fully acknowledge that he has inherited a truly difficult situation but I feel his decisions on tactics and transfers are actually making things worse.

While there will always be occasional shocks, certain outcomes are predictable based on past precedents. It was always highly unlikely that Hodgson was going to succeed where Benitez had failed. If Sam Allardyce replaced Alex Ferguson, we could all predict with reasonable accuracy that he would ultimately fail in the job whether or not he was given time to prove that to be the case or not. If feel that while giving Hodgson time might be fair because ‘you never know’, ultimately we’re postponing the inevitable. If he isn’t removed by a new owner beforehand, I believe that sooner or later there will come a point where the majority of the supporters want him out. That’s my opinion but I’ve followed the sport long enough to trust my instincts.

Having never been a pioneer or innovationist during a managerial career spanning over 30 years, it is reasonable to dismiss the possibility that Hodgson’s negative tactics are ahead of their time. If they are therefore established tactics, it would be reasonable to assume that if they were conducive to success, at least a reasonable number of ‘big’ clubs would employ them. However, it is fair to say that none of the big clubs in the big leagues are currently achieving any sort of success with such methods which suggests that these are not the optimum tactics for ‘big’ clubs to employ.

So why is Hodgson employing them? You could understand playing so negatively away to Man United (although ironically in that game the only time we competed was after we changed our tactics in response to going 2-0 down but as soon as we leveled we reverted to the previous tactics and threw the game) but can anyone understand the benefits of allowing the team to be dominated at home by the likes of West Bromwich Albion, Steaua Bucharest and a Northampton side sitting in 17th place 3 divisions below the Premiership?

Even if this method did bring positive results – which hasn’t been the case so far – it makes for a dire spectacle. Ultimately, football is a spectator sport and people watch it to see their team in possession, attacking the opposition, being creative and scoring goals; not retreating behind the half way line, meekly surrendering possession, looking bereft of attacking ideas and consistently looking second best.

Our revival hinges on the sale of the club to a buyer who will invest significantly in the playing staff and, of course, the stadium. If that doesn’t happen, our best players will leave and nothing that happens between now and then will make any difference. However, we have to hope it will happen and if it does, our revival would be easier if we have retained our best players. My concern is that while Hodgson persists with these tactics, Torres will get fed up of being starved of service, Agger will get fed up of being omitted from the starting XI or told to hoof the ball when selected, and Reina will get fed up of being overworked with scant rewards for his efforts. Meanwhile fans will turn away in their droves making LFC a less attractive proposition to any potential owners.

In the interest of fairness, I have attempted to cross-examine my own thinking to ask whether I am being harsher on Roy than I was with Rafa given that I was delighted when Rafa replaced Houllier but dismayed when Roy replaced Rafa. In Rafa’s first season at Anfield, he got a lot wrong and if I had been looking for evidence that he was the wrong man for the job, I could have found plenty. For example, playing Salif Diao ahead of Alonso in away games at Chelsea and Everton; handing debuts to two Spaniards at the Reebok Stadium; signing Josemi, Nunez and Morientes, and losing to teams like Crystal Palace and Burnley. If I’d had an agenda, I could have cited these (and more) examples to back up my argument. However, I did not. I believed in the manager. I was patient and continued to support him and the team. Should I therefore do the same with Hodgson?

In the case of Rafa’s first season, I reasoned that he was new to the Premiership and needed time to get to know the league, get to know his players and to overcome a language barrier to communicate his ideas to his players.

Roy doesn’t have the excuse of being new to the league or facing a language barrier. In fairness, he does need to get to know his players and perhaps the step up from Fulham to Liverpool takes some adjustment in the same way as moving to a new league.

I also thought Rafa inherited a weak squad and I don’t think that is true in Roy’s case. I think some of his selections and tactics are weakening his first team but there is more quality there than we are seeing. In any case, Rafa got some of the poorer players and the team as a whole playing better than in the previous season (albeit inconsistently) whereas Roy has so far got some of the better players playing worse and the team as a whole playing consistently badly. At least in that first season under Rafa, there were glimpses of a better future.

The other factor, at the risk of sounding ageist, is that Rafa joined us as one of the brightest managerial prospects in Europe. He was fairly young, modern-thinking and had his best years ahead of him. He had time on his side to learn, adapt and improve. If Roy needs time at the age of 63, when will he be ready?

Everything about Roy’s strategy appears geared to short-term improvement (e.g. clearing out promising young players, trimming the squad and recruiting ‘experienced’ players) yet we aren’t even seeing short-term improvements in terms of results or performances.

I haven’t ‘turned on the manager’. I never wanted him in the first place. I think it was a mistake to appoint him and so far things are actually turning out worse than I expected.

I won’t be marching to Anfield chanting ‘Hodgson out!’ or burning effigies of the man. For a long as he is in the post I will hope he gets it right and proves me wrong to doubt him but I just do not believe that will happen and I do believe that the sooner he is replaced, the better our prospects will be for the future. I think I should be able to say that without being accused of negativity, knee-jerking or being part of a ‘Hodgson out’ brigade.

Man Ure v Liverpool Preview

I rarely approach a fixture between Liverpool and Man Ure confident of a Liverpool victory. Under any circumstances, I would always take a draw ahead of kick off such is the fear of losing to that lot. However, I have never approached one of these fixtures with such certainty that we will lose. Other than accepting that in any game of football, either team can win, I believe a Liverpool win is so unlikely it is not even worth considering. What’s more, I think our chances of getting a draw are so unlikely it is not worth considering.

I will be watching braced for goals flying in past Pepe Reina. My fear is this could be United’s easiest and possibly biggest win over us since the Premiership began.

Apparently our team will be: Reina, Johnson, Skrtel, Carragher, Konchesky, Poulsen, Meireles, Maxi, Gerrard, Cole and Torres. I would prefer Lucas ahead of Poulsen and Agger ahead of either Carra or Skrtel (probably Skrtel on this occasion) but otherwise that is probably our best line up. However, compare that with the line up that famously won 4-1 in this fixture a couple of years ago.

Carra was fantastic as a makeshift fullback while Hyypia was majestic in central defence alongside Skrtel. Aurelio was by far superior to Konchesky. Johnson appears to be struggling with Hodgson’s negative tactics. He is clearly a better player going forward than defending yet Hodgson has restricted his offensive licence and left us with a weak defensive fullback with fragile confidence. He won’t be as sturdy as Carra was that day. Gerrard is not the same player as he was back then and that day we had Mascherano in the centre of the park. Alonso missed the game so Lucas played alongside Mascher. It’s only now that I really appreciate what a great central pairing Alonso and Mascher were. Poulsen and Meireles are not in the same league.

I do applaud the removal of Jovanovic from the first XI though it's difficult to see Cole being effective in such a fixture.

I don’t necessarily agree with those who think Kuyt’s absence is a blow for this fixture. I can see pros and cons when comparing him and Maxi in terms of what they bring to the team. Given that Hodgson doesn’t play the pressing game that brought the best out of Kuyt, I can’t see us being weaker for his absence while Maxi might help us retain possession a little better.

It’s all largely irrelevant though because United have the stronger first team and the stronger squad. The only way to beat teams that on paper are stronger is to outwit them tactically. This is why we don’t have a chance. Hodgson’s tactics so far have been exactly the same whether we were playing Arsenal, Man City, West Brom, Birmingham or Steaua Bucharest - Two banks of four sitting in our own half in front of the keeper; happily conceding possession in order to congest the areas in front of our six yard box; playing long balls into the channels for the two isolated front men to chase, and no substitutions until the last 10-15 minutes. It’s not just the negative and unwatchable tactics that I object to so much; my biggest gripe is the total lack of variation and flexibility. It’s like the final years of Houllier’s reign all over again. True, Houllier achieved success at Old Trafford on three occasions using those tactics but the game has moved on. United will be happy for us to force them to play in the channels as they have players who can operate well in those areas and who can deliver a telling cross.

We’re fucked. I would take a defeat of less than 4 goals as long as Michael Shithouse doesn’t get on the score sheet. It’s so sad that it’s come to that sort of thinking.

Keeping up with the Moyeses

I was talking with a Bluenose today and, as much as it pained me to say it, I had to concede that I think they have a better midfield than we do. That was unimaginable a couple of years ago when we began the 2007-08 season with Alonso and Mascherano as the preferred pairing and Sissoko, Lucas and one Steven Gerrard providing further cover. Now we are left with Lucas, Meireles, Poulsen and a much deteriorated Steven Gerrard. I’m optimistic that Meireles will prove to be a decent player but Alonso he is not. Poulsen looks every bit like a Fulham-type player and I’ve stated on numerous occasions that I think Lucas is a decent squad player but you can’t expect to challenge for trophies with him as a first choice midfielder.

Unbelievably, I find myself looking with envious eyes across to Goodison Park where they can field Cocoa the Clown (a.k.a. Marouane Fellaini), Steven Pienaar, Tim Cahill, Mikel Arteta, Jack Rodwell and Leon Osman. Rodwell in particular reminds me of a young Stevie G and more promising than anyone we have. I would swap him for Joe Cole in a heartbeat. Comparing Fellaini with Poulsen is like comparing Fernando Torres with Andrily Voronin. Pienaar is the equal of Dirk Kuyt but younger. Cahill has shown better form than Gerrard over the last year (and greater motivation). Phil Neville is of similar standard to Lucas. Will Meireles be better than Arteta? It’s debatable. Leon Osman is a decent workhorse who is perhaps more in tune with the English game than Maxi Rodriguez. Then there is that Russian dude (Diniyar Bilyaletdinov) whom I don’t rate so is therefore on a par with Milan Jovanovic. The potential aces in our pack are Pacheco and Babel but (a) our manager has yet to seriously use them and (b) his tactics would certainly not allow them to do the thing they do best – attack.

It gives me no pleasure to state this and I dearly hope I am wrong but I believe that without intervention such as new owners and/or the dismissal of Hodgson, Everton will finish above Liverpool this season – and get the better of the two derbies.

There, I said it. I hope I am wrong.

Birmingham v Liverpool Preview

I fucking hate Birmingham (the team, not the place). What is the phenomenon of bogey teams all about?

Over the years, we have unquestionably had a stronger team than Brum on every occasion we have played them yet inexplicably failed to beat them in a single League game during Rafa’s six-year tenure as our manager.

Looking back, part of the reason for that staggering statistic is that on each occasion we appear to have fielded a weakened team. Did Rafa under-estimate the opposition or were there mitigating circumstances which forced his hand?

What is clear today is that Birmingham present a very real threat to us and our aims for this season. The way the Premiership is panning out, you can clearly see there is the top four: Chelsea, United, City and Arsenal; then Spurs – all of whom clearly have stronger squads than us – then a group which contains ourselves, Everton, Villa and Birmingham (and could even be joined by Sunderland). As perennial underachievers, Spurs could (and probably will) drop back into our group but ultimately we are all just scrapping to be the best of the rest as those Champions League places look unobtainable.

Over the season, I would expect us to finish above Birmingham but not by much. For that to happen, I believe the successful integration of Meireles into the first team is essential. He will be on the bench today as St Andrews with Poulsen and Lucas holding the midfield. I’m not excited by the prospect.

These two were really poor against West Brom. It’s early days but to me, Poulsen looks a really uninspiring signing. He was a fringe player at Juventus and based on what we have seen so far, should be a fringe player at Liverpool. He is not an adequate replacement for Mascherano. Meireles is merely the replacement for Alonso that Aquilani was never given a chance to be.

The other curious selections by Hodgson include the choice of Skrtel to continue his partnership with Carragher in central defence with Agger dropping to the bench now that Konchesky is able to relieve him from left-back duties. I hope this is a selection based on the opposition with 6’6” Zigic likely to provide a real aerial threat. Longer term, the centre-half pairing I want to see is Agger and Skrtel but if, as seems likely, Hodgson is going to bottle the decision to drop Carra, he has to recognise that Agger is a better defender and crucially a better footballer than Skrtel. Agger has to play.

I’m also uninspired by Jovanovic continuing on the left-side. So far I’m far from impressed with him. The way Hodgson sets out his team with the wide midfielders tucking in alongside the central midfielders behind the half-way line, the only way to prevent the front two from being complete isolated and accessible only by long balls is to employ wide players with pace and the ability to bring the ball forward. Jovanovic can run with the ball but he’s certainly not pacy and so far we’ve seen nothing from him in attacking terms. I would actually select Babel there but the Dutch whinger lacks the discipline to defend as deeply as Hodgson wants. Fuck it, I’d just sack Hodgson and employ a manager who doesn’t advocate such negative tactics.

I can see today’s game being a draw and before kick-off I would accept a point. Defeat would be disastrous – particularly with Man Ure away being our next fixture. If we see a bit of Torres magic, we could pull off a win but it’s more likely to be of a smash and grab nature. I expect lots of Birmingham possession and little in the way of entertainment.

Carra

I've just been reading through a debate on 'The Tomkins Times' website with many posters being critical of Jamie Carragher for his attitude. I think it's a little inappropriate to be criticising the player for his personality today on the day of his testimonial of all days.

I suspect that the frustrations over Carra originate from frustrations over his performances on the football pitch. I think most people would accept or overlook the stuff said by or about the player through the media if he was still playing in a winning team and performing at his peak level week-in, week-out. I think most of us would agree that as a player he has been in decline for well over a year now and his inability or unwillingness to try anything other than hoofs forward and back-passes make for unattractive viewing. My frustrations centre around his continued inclusion in the first team and seeming unassailable status within the club but I don’t blame the player for that.

I’m sure that Carra expects his to be one of the first names on the teamsheet and that he would not meekly accept being omitted but in that circumstance I would want and expect nothing more than for him to react defiantly and come back determined to take some shifting when recalled. Those were qualities I admired in Sami Hyypia during his last few years at the club. The moment Carra concedes he no longer deserves to be in our first team is the moment he needs to retire. My concern with Carra is that he might not react as professionally as Sami did when phased out and may cause dressing room unrest, undermining his manager and the teammates selected ahead of him. Ultimately, that is a situation Hodgson must manage and it will be one of the key factors that will affect my judgement of Hodgson over the next year or so. [I suspect it is a situation he will dodge by continuning to select Carra every game during his brief tenure as our manager but hopefully the man will surprise me.]

Regarding Carra’s personality on and off the pitch, I agree there are less attractive sides to his personality and that his autobiography suggests he believes he is a better footballer than most of us who have watched him week-in, week-out for 13 years would agree. However, as he also acknowledges in his book, his enormous self-belief enabled him to become the player he was. His aggression, determination and will to disprove his detractors are the same qualities that enabled him to shake off the ‘Jack-of-all-trades’ tag and usurp Hyypia as the team’s defensive lynchpin. Let’s not cane him for displaying the same characteristics that led him to drag his cramp-filled weary body off the Attaturk turf in order to execute another inch-perfect block tackle to prevent a certain Shevchenko winner for Milan in injury time.

I don’t need Liverpool players to be nice guys. I need them to be winners. I know plenty of nice guys and I wouldn’t trust them to represent Liverpool Football Club. Carra has served our club with distinction and deserves the recognition he will receive today. I’m not convinced he has been a fantastic ‘player’ for over 10 years but he has been a truly fantastic ‘servant’ who gave his all wherever his managers chose to deploy him and who, for at least three years, was a truly world class defender. That’s what I’ll be thanking him for today.