Monday, 31 May 2010

It’s really Israeli’s end? (See what I did there?)

I’m saddened by this quote attributed by the Guardian to Yossi Benayoun as speculation links him with a move to Chelsea:

"Ancelotti wants me for next season and now everything depends on Liverpool... Chelsea will have to pay some £6m, but I believe that, in the end, I'll be moving there."

As things stand, Yossi is one of our better players and it would be a worry to lose him. More than that, while vultures are circling our truly world class players (Torres, Gerrard, Mascherano) it would be something of a blow if we can’t even keep Benayoun.

Still, if the quote is accurate, it looks like the player wants to go and to get £6m (a £1m profit on what we paid) for a 30 year-old wouldn’t be the worst bit of business AS LONG AS THE MONEY IS AVAILABLE TO BE REINVESTED IN SIGNING NEW PLAYERS. It is also questionable how much of a blow it would be to lose him.

In his first season at Liverpool, Yossi was at best a decent squad player. He was not good enough to hold down a place in the first XI (yet Ryan Babel was!) and ironically for a player who had excelled at West Ham, looked too lightweight to cut it in the Premiership. His second season at Anfield began equally unimpressively with Albert Bloody Riera signed and preferred ahead of him. Had he been sold for £6m in January 2009, few people would have been up in arms about it. Then a late winner in the Bernabeu gave him the confidence to produce his best form in that season’s run-in and totally transformed the way fans regarded him.

A hat-trick against Burnley early in this season suggested this form was here to stay but an injury set-back reverted him to the Yossi we had seen from August 2007 to January 2009.

Which is the real Benayoun? If he were to stay on at Anfield, would we see the August 2007-January 2009 version or the February 2009-December 2009 version? Because quite frankly, if it’s the former, who wouldn’t take £6m for him? There is absolutely no evidence that Yossi can reproduce his best form over the course of a whole season.

I do wonder why he would want to go to Chelsea. Apart from the obvious factors that they are the reigning Premiership and FA Cup Champions; certain to be in the hunt for major honours again next season and also will be competing in next season’s Champions League(!), my issue is that Yossi won’t be able to hold down a first team spot there. Ironically, he needs to be in a squad like Liverpool’s if he wants to be a key player. His desire to join Chelsea suggests that either he thinks he is better than he is or, more likely, he just wants glory and medals regardless of the size of his role in achieving them (AKA a Michael Owen).

I wouldn’t begrudge Stevie G or even Torres a move to a (foreign) club at which they can compete for top honours because they would be the best players at pretty much any club in the world and they probably are too good for Liverpool FC at the moment. Barring a brief purple patch, Yossi wasn’t good enough to hold down a first team place at Anfield until the squad had deteriorated sufficiently to leave him as one of the few creative players left at the club.

Ideally, I would like Yossi to stay on but if he wants to go to Stamford Bridge then fine. Losing him won’t have the catastrophic effect that losing Alonso had last season. We’ll take the £6m, thank him for his efforts for our club and tell him to go fuck himself.

Tuesday, 25 May 2010

What’s the worst that can happen?

It’s amazing how much difference a year can make. Last summer after coming so close to being Premiership Champions, we were discussing final pieces of the jigsaw - marquee signings like David Villa or David Silva who could add that little bit of gold dust to an already impressive squad. A year on and it feels as though we’ve hit rock bottom. It feels like we’re as far away from winning the title as we’ve ever been and far from speculating about which superstar could take us onto the next level, we’re worrying about our best players being snatched from us by ‘bigger clubs’.

So indulge me a Dr Pepper moment while I ask “What’s the worst that can happen?”

While I suppose the worst case scenario is that we ‘do a Leeds’ (i.e. flog our best players then next best players in a fire sale and plummet towards relegation and administration), realistically it is about as likely to happen as the best case scenario – that we are bought by a sugar daddy who finances moves for the top players in the world giving us a squad with sufficient strength in depth to see us win the Premiership next season.

While neither scenario is completely implausible, the odds against either are so tall we can safely dismiss them both.

I think we can also dismiss the prospect of Torres, Gerrard, Mascherano and Johnson all being sold or of any of those players being sold without the manager being able to re-invest at least some of the profit (though not necessarily all). My reason for believing that is simply that it would be madness to do so given the Americans’ determination to make a profit on their dirty dealings with Liverpool Football Club.

While Liverpool’s current squad remains intact, we have a fighting chance of finishing in the top four again next season. Forget the title; that is a pipe-dream with our current squad but Champions League qualification is achievable. Chelsea and Manchester United will finish in the top three for certain. Manchester City are the only club capable of challenging them if they get their act together. They are, however, just as likely to be battling for fourth again just as they massively underachieved in the season just finished. Assuming Spurs get through their qualifier into the Champions League proper, they will find the demands of playing in Europe’s premier competition in addition to competing in the Premiership a draining experience. Even the likes of Man United have struggled in the League after Champions League group games away from home so without that experience, it is entirely feasible to expect Spurs to struggle to battle on two fronts.

That gives Liverpool an edge on Spurs while their London rivals Arsenal have yet to string two decent seasons together since Benitez arrived in England so there is every chance they will drop into the battle for fourth next season. Aston Villa should be there or thereabouts again but given their tendency to shoot their load too early, I fully expect them to drop out of contention with another limp finish.

With a new fitness coach on board with the remit of keeping the likes of Torres, Johnson, Gerrard et al from missing significant chunks of the season again, plus the theory that says we can’t possibly suffer as many injuries to key players in a third successive season, it is feasible to think that with the same squad we can enjoy a far more successful campaign this time around.

If Torres was sold this summer, it would represent a massive blow – psychologically at least. El Nino is simply irreplaceable. Whatever fee he was sold for, you simply couldn’t buy a player as good as him. However, it you could buy a player who was inferior but still pretty darn good and who would be available for most if not all of the campaign, that could actually strengthen the team. Torres’ goal to game ratios in the last two seasons and, indeed his full three at Anfield, are simply outstanding. His appearances record is not. Is it better to have a striker who scores virtually a goal a game but misses half the season or a player who scores once every two games but plays the full campaign? I would suggest that latter. While the stats dictate you would basically get the same goal return, in the case of the former, you would be playing half your games without your best forward. That weakens your team and boosts your opponent in a significant number of your games. Of course, we’ve seen this proven during the 2009-10 campaign.

If Gerrard was sold this summer it could be a blessing in disguise. The player’s tantrums and lack of form this season have seemed to have a detrimental effect on his team and, just like Arsenal’s players relished the departure of Thierry Henry, it could be that moving on the Reds’ skipper might equally galvanise the remaining players allowing them to play under less pressure. No one can say at this point whether this season was a blip for Stevie or evidence of decline in a player past his peak. What is certain is that under any circumstances, selling a 30-year old for big money has to be considered good business in the world of football. Gerrard has been one of the finest players of his generation but he cannot go on forever and in the absence of an obvious replacement with equal ability, perhaps a player like James Milner might be able to replace him in a more subtle way that perhaps benefits the team.

While I don’t advocate selling either Gerrard or Torres, the fact is injury and form have deprived us the chance to see both individually or together on a regular basis in the last two seasons selling one or other doesn’t have to mean the end of the world or indeed Liverpool FC. I would say that selling either to a Premiership rival would be absolute madness and something I am sure that Liverpool would not even consider. To me, that increases the chances of Torres staying as there are few teams in Europe with enough stature or financial clout to attract him. He would never contemplate joining Real Madrid and Barcelona have just splashed out on David Villa. I can’t see Italy tempting him. Gerrard perhaps might be interested in teaming up with Alonso and Mourinho at Real Madrid. If he wanted to go, best of luck to him, as long as we get £30-40m back.

Then there is Mascherano. Losing him would be a blow but with Lucas an up and coming player in the same mould, albeit not yet as good as the Argentinean, his departure could be countenanced. While Mascherano is arguably the best defensive/destructive midfielder in the world, he is ultimately a player of limited all-round ability. His attacking qualities and goal threat are virtually non-existent and it might be to the benefit of the team if he were replaced with a more rounded (and taller) player. However, I can’t see a likely destination for him outside of Anfield. Barca wanted him last season and it’s clear he had his head turned by the Catalans but unless they can flog Ibrahimovic for big money, it’s difficult to see where they will get the funds to pay a premium fee for him. If he enjoys a storming World Cup, perhaps suitors will come out of the woodwork but for now he looks to me like a player who missed the boat last summer and is now more likely to stay.

I like Johnson but I have no fears about him being sold. Again, it is only if he stars in the World Cup that I can see another club making the sort of offer that might tempt us to deal and if that happened, there are other right-backs who could be bought. Realistically though, I can’t see it happening and I expect him to be at the club next season.

So basically, unless players were sold and the money was then not made available for purchasing replacements, there is every chance we will go into next season with a team and squad of the same strength as the one that has ended this campaign. It won’t be good enough to win the Premiership but it might be good enough to finish in the top four and would be good enough to win the Europa League and possibly one of the domestic cups given favourably draws. Unless injuries and downright farcical refereeing decisions effect us on the same scale as in this season, I would expect us to finish above Villa and probably Spurs as well. Then it comes down to how well or not Arsenal and Man City fare in the new campaign as to whether we can make that top four. I can’t see the likes of Everton or Birmingham getting close enough to challenge us. If anything, I expect us to pull further away that we were this season.

It’s not what we want and certainly not what we would have expected a year ago but in the circumstances, it’s the best we can hope for.

Monday, 10 May 2010

Worrying Times Ahead

I’ve got this football game on my Nintendo Wii called “Fifa ‘10”. It’s really good fun to play and it has an interesting concept. In it, you accrue ‘transfer stars’ through your achievements over the season which enable you to invest in new players and improve your squad. Basically, the better you perform, the better you can make your squad.

It’s a great idea but a million miles away from real football. In real football, Liverpool finished the 2008-09 season in 2nd place but accumulated the equivalent of zero ‘transfer stars’. Meanwhile, City spent much of that season in the bottom half of the table but went into last summer with unlimited transfer stars. Spurs and Aston Villa equally had numbers of stars that were disproportionate to their achievements last season.

You see in real football, achievements are no longer rewarded with the chance to invest in the squad. In real football, you have to invest in the squad first in order to achieve. All well and good if you have been bought by an ultra rich Russian Oligarch or Sheikh or even if you’ve been bought by an American who recognises the need for steady financial investment in order safeguard the value of his asset but what if you’ve been bought by a couple of fuck-heads who had to borrow money just to buy the club in the first place and then loaded the club with that debt meaning every penny earned through the teams achievements on the pitch is wiped out?

It’s plain fucking wrong.

After last season, we should have been able to push on, strengthen and consolidate our position at or near the top of the Premiership. Instead the club’s money was stolen by these bastard petty thieves and we were turned into a selling club.

Summers used to be spent discussing which players could be signed to improve the team. This summer won’t. There are plenty of players out there who would improve the current squad but the problem is we can’t afford any. Meanwhile, the sharks are circling the few decent players we do possess and there is every chance this summer’s transfer dealings could leave the club weaker for the second successive season.

Torres is being linked with moves here, there and everywhere and just to really set alarm bells ringing our current ‘interim’ chairman is a diehard Chelsea fan no less. What is to stop him accepting a £40m bid from his beloved team, gifting them a priceless asset while claiming good business on behalf of Liverpool FC?

Other than professional pride (which will hardly be dealt a fatal blow should he fail to straighten out the chronic mess Liverpool FC is in), what incentive has he got for sorting out the chaos that engulfs Anfield?

With Benitez seemingly at war with Christian Purslow now that the latter has been leaking smear stories about the former to certain members of the press, how can a business man with no emotional connection to the club chose which employee to back? A man with Liverpool in his blood would have no hesitation in telling Purslow to sling his filthy hook but will Broughton?

Meanwhile, Carra and Stevie – two of the most influential players at the club – appear to have had enough of serving under Rafa’s management. Facing attacks from all sides, might it not be in the best interests of all for Rafa to now depart if a new man could be brought in who would restore some level of unity to the dressing room?

The question is, what would have the biggest impact: losing Rafa or losing Gerrard and Carra? At this stage of their careers I would happily move Carra on and cash in on Gerrard but for the fact that any money raised is unlikely to be available to invest in adequate replacements.

Our club is a mess. The manager is not without fault though he is the person I feel most sympathy for. The owners and board members are a disgrace. Parry and Moores are ultimately the most responsible for this whole situation. Several players have seriously let the club down this season – most notably Steven Gerrard. Numerous ex-players – Redknapp and Lawrenson being two of the worst offenders – have abused their positions in the media by talking utter shite and spreading misinformation about the situation at Anfield which has piled pressure on the manager and players. Worst of all, large swathes of the supporters – the true lifeblood of the club – have let the club down this season by giving Rafa shit without bothering to check the facts and slating honest triers like Lucas and Ngog who – unlike their captain – have given every last drop of sweat for the cause this season.

In Fifa ’10, I would ditch Lucas and Ngog after a season replacing them with Iniesta and David Villa and in reality, those are the sorts of hugely adventurous (and massively expensive) moves that would be needed to make Liverpool competitive again. In reality, Liverpool does not have a pot to piss in and honest grafters like Lucas and Ngog are the best we can hope for. If anything, we need more of their like if we are to avoid drifting further down the League table.

I’ve never known a close season which has given me less cause for optimism or a greater sense of dread. Will Rafa still be in charge come August? Will Torres, Gerrard, Mascherano and Reina still be at the club? Will Hicks and Gillett still be the club’s owners? Will we have added any new players that can actually improve the quality of our team? How bad will this situation get before it begins to get better and what will better be?

When Liverpool last lifted the League title in 1990, no one would have predicted that 20 years later they would have failed to win it again. Likewise, when we finished 2nd last season, no one would have believed we would fail to finish in the top four the following season. How long could it be before we are back amongst the big boys?

Sunday, 2 May 2010

Liverpool v Chelsea: a Lose:Lose scenario

The nightmare scenario has unfolded. Unless Liverpool lose at home to Chelsea today, Man Ure will almost certainly win the League. It is still mathematically possible for Liverpool to finish fourth if they win their last two games but realistically it is not going to happen as it would require City and Spurs to draw in midweek and both teams to lose their respective away games to West Ham and Burnley.

Do we hope for a Liverpool win to keep our slim chances alive, knowing it will likely result in our 20-year old record of 18 League titles being broken by the team we despise more than any other, or do we support against our own team for 90 minutes as the best alternative?

I’m torn. Ask me now and I would say I want Chelsea to win the game but as kick off approaches, I can’t say I want to see a Chelsea player putting the ball in the back of the net against my team and celebrating with gusto. John Terry, Frank Lampard, Didier Drogba, Ashley Cole... What a bunch of twats. Can I really want them to beat my team?

It doesn’t sit comfortably with me but I guess we have to look at this as losing the battle to win the war. We share two records with Man Ure. 18 League titles and 3 consecutive League titles. We stand to lose both if they win the League this season and if we stop Chelsea winning today we’ll have handed them the records on a plate.

Realistically, we won’t be able to compete for our 19th title next season but the Mancs will be in the hunt again. However, with City’s spending and Chelsea having the ability to spend significantly, there are no guarantees that Man Ure will win the League again in the next few years. For as long as the Mancs are stuck on 18, we have the chance of building a squad capable of getting ahead of them. Once they get their 19th, it’s all over. We would have to catch them up before we could retake our lead and that is an awful thought.

I’ve accepted we won’t finish fourth. With Everton drawing yesterday, we are guaranteed 7th place which qualifies us for the Europa League next season. To me it makes little difference whether we finish 5th, 6th or 7th if we can’t get 4th. It won’t affect next season and finishing 5th rather than 7th won’t make this season any less disappointing.

Of course, our players won’t roll over and throw the game and for Chelsea to win they will have to deserve it. There is no question of something unethical occurring but the question is purely what should we want as Liverpool supporters.

I think a 1-0 Chelsea win is the best scenario for us. Make it quick...