Predictions for relegation

My Dad and I have an annual game in which we try to predict the three teams that will end up relegated. Last season I went for the three promoted teams (Stoke, Hull and West Brom) and came up with a pretty miserable 1 out of 3. I’ve only ever got three out of three once in 2000-01 when I correctly predicted the demise of the three cities: Manchester, Coventry and Bradford. This season it looks harder than ever given the number of really crap teams in contention.

Hull surprised everyone in the first half of the season but went into freefall after Christmas and in the end would have gone had Newcastle found an equaliser at Villa. Phil Brown’s embarrassing karaoke on the final day of last season to celebrate a defeat that, thanks to other results, didn’t matter said it all about the size of their ambitions. This summer they’ve signed no one having tried to sign everyone and I really think a bad start would prove as good as it gets for them.

Portsmouth have sold Crouch and now carry zero goal threat. Johnson has also been sold so they are undoubtedly weaker this term. Throw into the mix the chaos going on at board level and the fact they have no manager (who the hell is Paul Hart?) and it looks pretty bleak for the South-coast team.

Having previously stated that Wigan would never appoint a foreign manager, Chairman Dave Whelan appointed Spaniard Martinez as the successor to Steve Bruce. Whelan then bizarrely declared that he had such faith in his new manager that Martinez would not be sacked even if Wigan were relegated. Not exactly a ringing endorsement. Martinez could well be this season’s Paul Ince who last season, having done well in the lower divisions, struggled to match expectations at a medium-sized club that had over-achieved under the previous manager. Wigan have adopted a dangerous policy of selling their best players. The only thing worse than selling your best players is selling your best players when your best player is Emile Heskey.

Stoke stayed up last season by packing their defence with tall players and scoring the occasional goal off Rory Delap’s exocet throw-ins. This season, teams will be more aware of their tactics and without variation, they will find their second season tougher.

Burnley and Wolves look as ill-suited to the Premiership as any teams promoted in recent seasons. While Birmingham, despite having recent Premiership experience, don’t possess a strong squad.

Bolton and Blackburn are crap but should keep out of danger simply because there are worse teams. Meanwhile, Sunderland should improve on last season’s performance this time around.

I’ve gone for Burnley, Hull and Portsmouth as my three to go. If Wolves and Stoke survive, they’ll almost certainly be in my three to be flushed out next season.