Scrutinising Rafa's Record in the Transfer Market

There are people who are knowledgeable about football and there are Evertonians. I don’t think all Bluenoses talk shite; just the ones who talk. I was in Scotland last week and found a welcome respite from watching pissed posh people Ceili dancing by discussing football with some fellow pint drinkers. Unfortunately one was a Blue and therefore incapable of applying reason to anything coming out of his mouth.

He dubiously stated as fact that had David Moyes had the same spending money as Rafa Benitez during the last five years, Everton would have won the League. I tried explaining to him that Liverpool’s net spend was nowhere near the ridiculous sums quoted in the media but he couldn’t understand that ‘net spend’ was different to the cost of refurbishing the goals. He stated, again as fact, that Rafa has wasted all the money at his disposal and seemed to think that a man who has broken Everton’s transfer record three times on Andrew Johnson, Yakubu and Marouane Fellaini respectively would have performed better if given the same resources. I also tried to explain that much of Rafa’s transfer funds have been generated by securing Champions League qualification in every one of his seasons as manager and reaching the Final twice but the argument was wasted on the muppet.

On Saturday, against my better judgement, I tuned into Gillette Soccer Saturday on SKY Sports in time to see the weekly goading of Phil Thompson by Jeff Spelling and the other Liverpool-hating ‘experts’. Tony Cottee, another Bluenose runt, quoted some wildly inaccurate figure about Rafa’s net spend as Liverpool manager (probably including the £14m spent on Djibril Cisse before Rafa’s appointment and the exaggerated transfer fees quoted in the media) and repeated the accusation that Rafa has made a series of bad signings. This was the cue for Charlie Nicholas to nonsensically claim the Americans were right not to give Rafa money to spend because he would only misuse it while Paul Merson typically spat bile in the direction of Rafa and the club.

These combined episodes have led me to question why simpletons have come to think that the man who signed Xabi Alonso, Pepe Reina, Daniel Agger, Dirk Kuyt, Javier Mascherano, Fernando Torres, Yossi Benayoun and now Glen Johnson is useless in the transfer market unlike say, Alex Ferguson who has signed gems such as Juan Sebastian Veron, Eric Djemba-Djemba, Kleberson and Dimitar Berbatov to name but a few.

No manager gets every signing right and of course Rafa has signed a few stinkers but overall, I felt his record was good. I decided to look into the issue in more detail to find out whether my perception was generous to the Liverpool manager or fair.

A key issue in evaluating the manager’s performance in the transfer market is exactly what elements of a transfer the manager is responsible for. For example, a normal transfer would require the player to be recommended to the manager by his scouts; the manager would then presumably check out the player for himself and decide to sign him, and then the Chief Executive would negotiate the transfer with the selling club. How much of a say the manager has in the fees paid is unclear. Last summer, it seemed to be the case that Rafa submitted a shortlist of players he wanted and the Chief Exec, Rick Parry, decided the order in which they would be pursued and the proportion of the transfer budget that would be spent on each.

It was clear that Robbie Keane was on Rafa’s wanted list in the summer of 2008 but we know Rafa’s priority was to sign Gareth Barry. Instead, Parry prioritised Keane and blew virtually the whole budget on him causing an irreparable rift between him and Benitez.

The performance of Parry was equally crucial to some signings that didn’t come off. It is known Rafa wanted to sign Nemanja Vidic and Florent Malouda but missed out because of Parry’s incompetence.

The other crucial factor is how much money the manager has to spend. While Chelsea can afford to write off £30m on Andrily Shevchenko, taking a £3m loss on Robbie Keane leads to a Liverpool manager being castigated by fans and the media because whereas Chelsea can simply go out and sign someone else, Rafa needs to generate funds to further invest in the team. Similarly, it is easy to criticise a free signing like Boudewijn Zenden but if the manager has no money to spend, free players are all he can sign.

Another difficult factor to quantify is how much the urgency to fill a position forces the manager’s hand. For example, this summer Rafa’s urgent need to recruit a centre-half forced him to buy Kyrgiakos whom he would never have bought under normal circumstances. Similarly, desperation to sign a right-winger was undoubtedly a factor in signing Jermaine Pennant in the summer of ’06.

Overall, I decided in assessing Rafa's performance in the transfer market I would consider him responsible for choosing to sign the players brought in during his tenure including the work of the scouts whom he ultimately employs. However, I will not hold him responsible for the fee spent on the player as this is not strictly within his control. Where players signed under Benitez have been resold, I will credit him with any increase or decrease in value as this is generally a result of the improvement or deterioration of that player under his management. I will not use a Paul Tomkins-style co-efficient method to counter for inflation in fees as the transfer record paid by an English club has risen only from £29.1m in 2004 to £32.5m during Rafa’s tenure so the increase is negligible. As it is too soon to judge the most recent signings (Aquilani hasn’t even played yet!) I will only give consideration to the 41 players signed by Benitez who have played in the first team prior to this season. I realise Rafa has invested in young players, some of whom have moved on without making first team appearances but in these cases the fees involved are virtually impossible to ascertain and none were greater than £1m.

I will consider the merits of each signing in terms of value given and, where appropriate, resale value. For players still at the club, it is futile to draw conclusions based on what I consider to be their current value as (a) this is debatable and (b) value fluctuates according to form and age. For example, if Torres were to be sold today he might be valued at £40-£50 million but if sold in 5 years time when aged _ he might be sold for considerably less. If he allows his contract to run down (as Michael Owen did), he could go for even less or free. I will focus on each transfer window in turn and consider each signing in the perspective of that period.

Transfer Window #1: Summer 2004
Rafa’s first signings have to be assessed in the context that he was new to the club and to the English League. As such, he needed time to assess the playing staff he had inherited before he could identify the areas in most need of strengthening. He also had yet to learn just how different the English game is to La Liga meaning that players who might have been successful in Spain would not necessarily cope with the increase pace, intensity and physical nature of the Premiership. Two such players were Josemi and Nunez whom Rafa quickly concluded were ill-suited to the English game and moved on after just one season. Both could be labelled bad signings but in both cases, Rafa rectified the mistake and recouped the fees paid for both. In Nunez’s case he was thrown in as part of the deal to take Michael Shithead to Real which is a bit like receiving sports equipment vouchers for schools when buying your shopping at Tesco. Mine go straight in the bin.

Alonso remains one of Rafa’s finest signings. He was a key player in the team for the next 5 seasons before being sold for a profit margin of almost 300% or £19.5m to you and me. Luis Garcia divided fans’ opinions as he delighted and frustrated in equal measure but there can be no debate that his goals en route to Istanbul and, to a lesser extent, Cardiff the following season, were key to the club’s successes in the Champions League and FA Cup in Rafa’s first two seasons. He was sold for a loss of £2m three seasons later but that deal was a sweetener for the deal that brought Fernando Torres move in the opposite direction so I would call it £2m well spent.

Transfer Window #2: Winter 2005
Though he failed to fulfil his potential during his time on the club’s books and was sold for a fairly modest fee of £3.25m, the signing of Scott Carson has to be viewed as good business given that he cost only £1m and therefore returned a profit of £2.25m.

Fernando Morientes failed to live up to expectations having arrived with an impressive reputation. However, before labelling him a “bad signing”, it should be considered that no football fan or media pundit thought we were signing a dud when we landed him for £6.3m. He wasn’t a bad player for the club but struggled to adapt to the English game. Despite a disappointing season and a half (in which he won an FA Cup Winners medal), he was sold for £3m taking a 50% loss on a player who had by now turned 30 years old so it wasn’t a total catastrophe by any means.

Mauricio Pellegrino was signed for free and, despite doing little to impress in his 13 appearances, it should be noted that the form of Sami Hyypia significantly improved once the Argentine was signed possibly in response to competition or because the Finn needed to play fewer games in quick succession. It is said the Pellegrino had a positive impact behind the scenes at the club and this ultimately led to his return as a coach. Ultimately, we lost nothing by signing him and he was still a better option at centre-half than Igor Biscan.

Transfer Window #3: Summer 2005
By 2005-06, Rafa better understood the demands of the Premiership and signed players that he believed would cope better with the bruising long-ball styles of teams like Bolton. Crouch and Zenden both had Premiership experience while Sissoko was as combatative a midfielder as you’ll find. Crouch was signed for £7m and subsequently sold for a £4m profit after three seasons in which he was highly rated by the Anfield faithful. Sissoko, signed for £5.6m, was also sold for a profit of approximately £3m. Momo certainly improved the team and was only sold after Mascherano – a further improvement – had been signed. Zenden cost nothing and on that basis could be considered a success as he at least improved the overall strength in depth of the squad when fit.

Pepe Reina was undoubtedly Rafa’s best signing in that summer transfer window. In his first four seasons in England, no other keeper- not even Petr Cech or Edwin van der Sar - can rival him for consistently high quality as three Golden Glove awards attest.

Transfer Window #4: Winter 2006
During the January transfer window of 2006, Rafa brought in Daniel Agger who, but for injuries could have established himself as one of the finest centre-halves in Europe by now and who may still in the future.

Josemi was swapped for Jan Kromkamp who may not rank as a successful signing but was better than the player he replaced and was sold for £2m (the same fee paid for Josemi) 6 months later with an FA Cup Winner’s medal in his pocket.

To the delight and disbelief of Kopites, Rafa also brought home Robbie Fowler for a swansong. Sentimentality aside, Fowler scored the opening goals in 5 games during a run-in which saw the team go into the FA Cup Final on the back of 11 straight wins. As the fourth choice striker in the following season, Fowler chipped in with another 7 goals before being released at the season’s end. Having cost nothing, the signing of Fowler has to be viewed as good business in the circumstances.

Transfer Window #5: Summer 2006
The summer of 2006 saw more successful signings. Craig Bellamy, signed for £6m, struggled to make the step up at a top club but he helped us reach a second Champions League Final in three seasons and his goal in the Nou Camp was one of that season’s highlights. He was sold for a £1.5m profit the following summer. Dirk Kuyt, signed for £9m, was not the 20-goal-a-season striker we hoped for but has more than proven his value to the team in the three years since and remains a first XI player. Aurelio was signed for nothing and has added value to the squad enjoying his personal best season at the club last campaign. Mark Gonzalez flopped at Liverpool but was still sold for a £2m profit after one disappointing season. Jermaine Pennant is a player many cite as one of Rafa’s bad signings. In Rafa’s defence, he wanted Simao but when that transfer fell through, ended up going for a prospect rather than a proven international. Did Rafa have a say in the fee? Who knows. Pennant was signed for £6.7m which retrospectively (as it did at the time) seems excessive and given he was released for nothing after 3 seasons it looks like bad business. However, it should be pointed out that during the summer of 2007, after Pennant’s excellent post-winter form en route to the Champions League Final in which he was our best attacking player, his signing was considered good business. Sadly, Pennant couldn’t retain that form – more because of his inflated ego and lack of workrate than any lack of talent.

Transfer Window #6: Winter 2007
During the winter transfer window of 2006-07, Rafa brought in Javier Mascherano on loan and Alvaro Arbeloa. Both players played key roles in getting us to Athens and but for the hand of Filippo Inzaghi, they might have helped the club win its 6th European Cup. Both have since proven to be good signings for the club while the players have also both benefitted from joining Liverpool with Mascherano being appointed Argentina’s captain and Arbeloa becoming Spain’s first choice right-back and moving to Real Madrid for £1m more than Liverpool signed him for. Emiliano Insua was also signed and is currently the first choice left-back and showing great promise for the future. Danielle Padelli was signed on loan and quickly sent back after one disastrous appearance in the final League game at home to relegated Charlton.

Transfer Window #7: Summer 2007
In the summer of 2007, Rafa made his best purchase to date when he brought in Fernando Torres. There are not many players who could be signed for £21m and called a bargain but El Nino is one. Despite a slow start to his Liverpool career, Yossi Benayoun has proven to be an excellent signing and again, for just £5m, has been excellent value for money so far.

Less complimentary things have been said about the other signings brought in that summer. Ryan Babel arrived with the potential to be one of the top players in the world. Sadly, his bad attitude has seen his talent go to waste and he now looks poor value for the £11.5m spent on him. Without a significant change in the player’s attitude and levels of performance, it is hard to see any outcome other than the club taking a big loss on the idiot. Sebastian Leto was restricted to just 4 first team appearances after his dodgy work permit was rumbled but he never looked like a world-beater in the making and was too slow to cut it as a top winger. However, the club made a £1.2m profit on his resale this summer. Jack Hobbs was another who, given little opportunity to shine, never made the breakthrough but again was sold for a minor profit of £250K. Charles Itandje was signed for an undisclosed fee and we will be lucky to get a fee back on his eventual resale or release. However, the financial loss will be small.

That leaves two of the players most likely to feature on any disgruntled supporter’s list of bad Rafa signings: Lucas and Voronin.

I know it’s controversial but I genuinely don’t believe Lucas was a bad signing. He was the Brazilian Under-21 Captain and highly rated in his own country yet we signed him for a modest fee of £5m. He has since become a full international for Brazil so clearly he is not a bad player.

He’s played 76 games for us including some memorable victories such as the 1-0 win over Inter in the San Siro and the 4-1 over the Scum at Old Trafford. He also played a key part in earning us the 2-1 win at Goodison a couple of years ago when his goal-bound shot was handled on the line by Phil Neville earning us the winning penalty. Clearly he is a Premiership-standard player but unfortunately for him, the standards at Liverpool are a little higher than that. As most midfielders would, Lucas has paled in comparison to Mascherano and Alonso and, to be fair, I don’t think last season he was utilised in a position that played to his strengths when replacing one of those two. Top teams need world class midfield players but, unless money is no issue, also need decent midfield players as back up. Take Phil Neville for example. At Man Ure, he was never going to oust Roy Keane and Paul Scholes from the first team but he could come in and do a job. Then after leaving to join Everton, he was made captain. So too would Lucas be considered one of the better players at a lesser club like Everton who incidentally paid three times more for Marouane Fellaini than we paid for Lucas.

Don’t get me wrong, I would rather see a Liverpool XI that includes better players than Lucas in midfield but that does not mean he was a bad signing for £5m.

As for Andrily Voronin, I can’t stand seeing the player in a Liverpool shirt and actually cheered when he missed his one-on-one against Burnley on Saturday. Do I wish we had never signed him? Yes. Do I think he was a bad signing? No. Why? Well, basically because he was free. It’s not as though Rafa had £20m to spend and decided against signing David Villa because he thought Voronin was a better player. Rafa had a limited budget, knew he needed more striking options and brought in a player who had done well in the Bundesliga for nothing. Voronin had a pretty lousy season and Rafa moved him on the next summer. Had any club offered to buy him, Rafa would have sold him in a heartbeat but none did (they’d all seen him play). Instead he was loaned out in the hope he would earn himself a move the next summer. Unfortunately, events (Americans) conspired against Rafa and he was forced to bring back a player he knows is not good enough because he can’t bring in anyone better. Bad player but not bad signing. Voronin was free and worth every penny.

Transfer Window #8: Winter 2008
Skrtel was another astute signing by Rafa. For £6.5m (less than a quarter of what Man Ure paid for Rio Ferdinand), Rafa secured a tough, no-nonsense centre-half who has so far been excellent value for the club. Damien Plessis was brought in for nothing and has not featured enough for any fair judgements to be made.

Transfer Window #9: Summer 2008
This transfer window is probably the reason people accuse Rafa of making bad signings. None of the five players brought in could be labelled successes. Riera has done OK but is hardly in the ‘world class’ category. N’gog has increasingly looked like a good prospect for the future and may yet prove to be a bargain for the £1.5m we bought him for. Robbie Keane was a well-publicised disaster while Dossena was a bad buy and the less said about Degen the better.

Dealing with Keane first, I was delighted when we signed him. Like most Kopites, I thought we’d paid more than his worth but I reasoned that we were recruiting a proven Premiership goal-scorer. No one can honestly say at the time of the transfer they thought we were signing a bad player so it would be harsh to criticise Rafa’s judgement. It was Rick Parry and not Rafa who agreed the £19m transfer fee and it is well known that Rafa wanted that money spent on Gareth Barry instead so again, Rafa can’t be blamed for that. What followed was hugely disappointing for all concerned as Keane failed to deliver and became the focus of negative media attention but at least we got him out of the club quickly and decisively and the loss of just £3m represented effective damage limitation.

Dossena was and still is the Italian national team’s first choice left-back. Italy are the current World Champions. He is also a fat guy who can’t defend and has been largely crap for us. While his status in the International game remains high, there remains hope we can recoup most of the £7m we paid for him but if not, we can always take consolation from the fact his goal against the Scum last season was priceless.

Transfer Window #10: Winter 2009
None

List of Transfers

Signing ...........Apps........ Cost .........Resale Cost ......Profit/Loss
X Alonso.......... 210.......£10.5m.............£30m.............+£19.5m
L Garcia...........121..........£6m................£4m..................-£2m
A Nunez.............27.........£1.5m...............£2m...............+£0.5m
F Morientes.......61.........£6.3m..............£3m.................-£3.3m
M Pellegrino......13..........Free................Free.....................£0
S Carson............9............£1m..............£3.25m...........+£2.25m
J Reina..............207..........£6m..................n/a...............................
B Zenden...........47...........Free...............Free......................£0
P Crouch..........134..........£7m................£11m................+£4m
M Sissoko.........87.........£5.6m.............£8.3m...............+£2.7m
A Barragan.........1..........£240K.............£675K..............+£435K
J Kromkamp.......18...........£2m.................£2m.....................£0
R Fowler............39...........Free................Free.....................£0
D Agger.............79..........£5.8m................n/a...............................
C Bellamy..........43...........£6m...............£7.5m...............+£1.5m
J Pennant...........81..........£6.7m...............£0...................-£6.7m
M Gonzalez........36..........£1.5m.............£3.5m...............+£2m
F Aurelio.............87..........Free..................n/a..............................
D Kuyt..............147..........£9m...................n/a.............................
G Paletta.............8............£2m................£1.2m..............-£800K
N El Zahr........... 25.........£200K.................n/a.............................
M Roque..............1............Free.................Free.....................£0
A Arbeloa...........98.........£2.5m...............£3.5m...............+£1m
J Mascherano....90........£18.6m................n/a.............................
E Insua..............18.........£1.3m.................n/a............................
D Padelli..............1...........Free.................Free.....................£0
F Torres..............84........£21.2m................n/a............................
R Babel...............91........£11.5m................n/a...........................
A Voronin............28.........Free....................n/a...........................
Y Benayoun.........89..........£5m...................n/a...........................
Lucas L..............71..........£5m...................n/a...........................
S Leto................4.........£1.8m.................£3m...............+£1.2m
C Itandje...............7....Undisclosed.............n/a...........................
J Hobbs...............5........£150K...............£400K..............+£250K
M Skrtel..............50.........£6.5m.................n/a...........................
D Plessis..............7...........Free...................n/a............................
R Keane..............28.........£19m................£16m.................-£3m
A Dossena..........26..........£7m...................n/a............................
P Degen...............2..........Free....................n/a............................
D N'gog...............19.........£1.5m.................n/a...........................
A Riera................40..........£8m...................n/a...........................
................................................................TOTAL..... +£19.535m
Transfer fees quoted in the media vary constantly but I have taken the above fees from the excellent lfchistory website.

Conclusion:

Overall, Rafa’s portfolio has included some outstanding signings such as Torres, Alonso and Reina; some good and really good signings such as Benayoun, Kuyt and Skrtel; some decent signings such as Aurelio and Arbeloa, and some not so good signings such as Keane, Voronin and Gonzalez. Because of the differences in spending money, Rafa’s ‘mistakes’ in the transfer market have been more costly than those of Alex Ferguson, Jose Mourinho or Arsene Wenger (let alone the various managers of Spurs in recent years) while Rafa also gets far more stick from loathsome media cretins like Paul Merson meaning his ‘mistakes’ are blown out of proportion as was the case with Robbie Keane. Rafa certainly has had a greater proportion of successful signings than his predecessor, Houllier, and crucially, unlike Houllier, Rafa has generally made profit from the players he has moved on rather than seen their values plummet to zero. A current profit of nearly £20m on players bought and sold by the manager suggests that on the whole players' values have increased under Rafa's management although there are obviously some exceptions.

The players brought in last summer were the most disappointing crop to date which is perhaps why football fans with shorter memories than goldfish have been slating him of late but if the early form of Glen Johnson is anything to go by, it seems Rafa is back on track. Let’s hope Aquilani is another success story.