I was talking with a mate last night about the battle for fourth place. I personally don’t think we will finish fourth now. I expect Aston Villa, Man City and Spurs to all drop points between now and the end of the season and if we could take 19 points from our remaining 8 games (6 wins, a draw and a defeat) I think our 70 points could be enough to pip those teams. That is a big 'if' though.

Looking at our remaining fixtures, Man Ure (a), Sunderland (h), Birmingham (a), Fulham (h), West Ham (h), Burnley (a), Chelsea (h) and Hull (a), that is certainly possible. You would expect us to win against Sunderland (h), Fulham (h), West Ham (h), Burnley (a) and Hull (a) giving us 15 points. If we put the Man Ure game down as the one we can afford to lose, we would be looking for a win and a draw from Chelsea at Anfield and our bogey team Birmingham away.

Spurs have a much harder fixture list including Stoke (a), Sunderland (a), Arsenal (h), Chelsea (a), Man Ure (a) and Man City (a). With the Arsenal, Chelsea and Man Ure games coming back-to-back, confidence could be wiped out before they reach May. Of their remaining 9 fixtures and potential 27 points, I would expect them to drop at least 13 points leaving them on 66 points.

City are the team I fear most but they face tough games against Fulham (a) and Everton (h) next after which their run-in includes Man Ure (h), Arsenal (a), Aston Villa (a), then Spurs (h) back-to-back. Had they not won 4-2 at Stamford Bridge, I would have a more pessimistic view of their chances but given the number of games they have drawn this season – particularly against inferior opposition – they are just as likely to drop points at home to Wigan and Birmingham as away to Arsenal. Overall of their 10 remaining fixtures and potential 30 points, I would expect them to drop 12 points leaving them with 68 points. For that to happen I am looking for them to take 4 points from Fulham (a) and Everton (h), 6 from Wigan (h) and Burnley (a), 3 from Birmingham (a), Man Ure (a) and Arsenal (h), and 5 from Villa (h), Spurs (h) and West Ham (a).

Villa’s remaining fixtures look less daunting than those of Spurs and City. I can see them taking maximum points from Wolves (h) and Sunderland (h). They might be looking at 6 points from Chelsea (a), Bolton (a) and Everton (h) and another 6 from Portsmouth (a) and Hull (a). Finally, I reckon they could be looking at 5 points from Birmingham (h), Man City (a), Blackburn (h). That gives them 23 points from a potential 30 meaning they would finish on 71. However, to do this, Villa would have to show a consistency that has eluded them this season and I am mindful of how they crumpled in the run-in last season.

Since fourth place was rewarded with a Champions League qualifying spot, no team has amassed as many as 70 points and finished lower than fourth. For us, that has to be the aim and if we achieve 70 and it still isn’t enough, we would have to accept that the standard this season has been higher than ever before.

My worry is that we have shown nothing to suggest we are capable of going on the winning run that is required for us to get 70 points. The one thing in our favour is that unlike Villa, Spurs and City, we have shown inconsistency and dropped points without being able to field our strongest XI for much of the season. Villa, Spurs and City are in the mix with us having been able to field their strongest teams for much of their campaigns. Now that Torres, Johnson, Benayoun and Gerrard are available for selection, it is possible we will improve several notches. However, we need players like Gerrard to considerably raise their own standard of performances as names on a team sheet don’t win points.

I’ll refer back to my assumptions here in a couple of weeks to see how results are panning out. The one certainty is that bar Man Ure tomorrow and the Chelsea and Brum games, all our other fixtures are “must-win”. None of the other contenders have that same pressure.