Should Rafa stay or go?

Assuming it is our (the club’s) choice and not Benitez’s (after all why should a top manager like him stay where he is not appreciated, respected or given a realistic chance to be successful), on what should we base a decision on whether to fire him or retain his services?

Should we let the increasingly anti-Benitez Kop magazine convince us that fourth place is the “minimum acceptable target” and therefore the likely failure to achieve that target is just cause to dispense with the services of the manager who brought us closer to winning the League last season than in any of the previous nineteen seasons? Or should we accept that having the fifth most expensive squad and the fifth most expensive wage bill (by big margins) means that to finish above fifth would be an achievement?

I believe that statement about fourth being the “minimum acceptable target” was first uttered by Rick Parry during the 2002-03 season and was repeated throughout 2003-04 which proved to be Houllier’s final season. Given it looks certain we will miss out on that target this campaign, as someone who wanted Houllier sacked (or to quit) by the summer of 2004, I have to ask should I judge Rafa by the same standards and therefore call for him or has the game changed making that standard irrelevant six years later?

When Houllier failed to achieve the “minimum acceptable target” in 2002-03, he was not sacked. People reasoned that the man had led us a treble of cups in 2000-01 and to runners-up spot in the League in 2001-02 and that he therefore deserved a shot at redemption. He had not been forced to sell a key midfielder during the summer of 2002 (though he released Redknapp and McAllister for free) and certainly had not been restricted in terms of spending money with £10m splashed out on “striker” El Hadji Diouf as well as a further £8.4m on midfielders Diao and Cheyrou. What was particularly significant about the signing of Diouf was that Houllier chose not to sign Nicolas Anelka and went for Diouf instead. He made a decision that was far from obvious (and with hindsight far from sane) and the board backed him 100%. Really Houllier could blame no one but himself for the deterioration in 2002-03. Houllier simply shipped out more quality than he brought in turning a strong squad into a weaker squad that was over-reliant on a minority of quality players.

By comparison, the reasons for the deterioration in Benitez’s squad from last season to this can clearly be attributed to the departures of Robbie Keane, Xabi Alonso, Alvaro Arbeloa and Sami Hyypia without adequate replacements. Recent signings such as Albert Riera and Sotirios Kyrgiakos were bought only because Benitez was priced out of moves for his preferred targets. Meanwhile, when Rafa wanted to replace Alonso with Gareth Barry, he was overruled. Maybe that decision would have been as foolish as Houllier’s decision to replace Anelka with Diouf but I would guess that had Rafa been backed, Barry would still be in the team now (having had a year to adapt) whereas now we have neither Alonso nor Barry. The point is, Rafa wasn’t backed so he can’t be blamed for the team being so much weaker without Alonso.

If Houllier was given another year after under-achieving so much with so few mitigating circumstances in 2002-03, surely it would be only fair to give Rafa the chance to prove this season was blip given how many mitigating circumstances he could site?

Making a comparison between this season and the final season under Houllier (2003-04), how similar are the circumstances that led to Houllier’s dismissal to those that some claim should see his successor experience the same fate?

In 2003-04, Liverpool finished fourth and qualified for the Champions League. This season it now looks highly unlikely that we will achieve the same feat. However, in 2003-04 there was less competition than now. That season Liverpool’s closest rivals for fourth were Newcastle, Aston Villa and Charlton Athletic who finished with 56, 56 and 53 points respectively. Neither had been backed by a Billionaire Sheikh or possessed squads of the strength of Man City and Spurs in 2009-10. In ’03-04, 59 points was enough to mathematically guarantee fourth place. This season it wouldn’t get close. Liverpool already have 59 points this season with three games remaining and could still finish as low as 7th.

Back then, Liverpool were financially superior or at least equal to their nearest rivals for fourth place which is definitely not the case in 2010. By my calculations, Spurs’ net net spend in the last four transfer windows has been £39.1m, Villa’s was £67.4m and City’s a whopping £238.2m. The exact figures can be disputed as the media constantly distorts or guesses at transfer fees but the club’s net spends will be close. Liverpool’s net spend during the same four transfer windows equals a profit of £2.6m. In other words, while our current rivals for fourth place have been heavily investing in their squads, Liverpool has been standing still and even going backwards.

Just the other day I heard ESPN’s “football expert” Craig Burley dismissing the lack of money for Benitez to spend as an excuse saying “It’s not like there hasn’t been money to spend... He’s been able to spend £20m on a player.” As usual, the lack of anything functioning between Burley’s ears means he has missed the point that in order to buy a £20m player, Benitez had to sell a £30m player.

Despite this, we continually hear from the media that this has been a season of underachievement for Liverpool Football Club. If we were comfortably above Villa, Spurs and City at this stage of the season as the media seem to expect us to be, would that mean that this has been a season of underachievement for those other teams instead? In fact, I would argue that even if City take fourth place, this has been a season of underachievement for them given the vast sums invested in their squad over the last three seasons. As usual though, Liverpool is assessed according to its history and its recent over-achievements under the management of Rafael Benitez.

Under Houllier, our achievements were actually par for the course given our financial position relative to those of our rivals. Even the unprecedented treble was actually achieved at the expense of a Premiership campaign that would otherwise have been deemed acceptable. Our much (over) celebrated Champions League qualification that season was achieved with just 69 points. Only twice since then would that total have secured third place and that points tally was about average for a season under Roy Evans who was deemed inadequate for the job.

Going back to comparing 2003-04 with the current season, it should be noted that 2003-04 was not an isolated disappointing season but followed a campaign in which we finished fifth with 64 points. By comparison, this season bucks the trends of recent seasons under Benitez and follows our best season (League-wise) under him.

Rafa’s critics claim he makes baffling decisions such as recently substituting Torres at Birmingham or regularly playing Lucas ahead of Aquilani. Torres’ subsequent operation has actually vindicated Rafa’s handling of him as clearly the player was struggling with fitness and those of us who watched Birmingham game could see Torres was having no positive impact on the game whatsoever. Meanwhile, despite his critics, Lucas has improved considerably over the last season and a half and, while I still don’t think a team can challenge for the top prizes with him as a virtual ever-present, I’ve seen nothing to suggest the opposite is true of Aquilani. I can at least see some logic in these decisions which was not the case under Rafa’s predecessor. In 2003-04, Houllier seemed to persisting with utilising the likes of Heskey and Diouf as wingers because he stubbornly did not want to admit that the club’s two most expensive signings bought by him to play as strikers were actually not very good. Meanwhile, the less said about persisting with Biscan at centre-half for virtually a whole season, the better.

Has Rafa been playing Torres on a wing or selecting Lucas at centre-half? No. If anything, his team selections this season have been less surprising and more predictable than in any of previous campaign under him.

Then there is zonal marking. Given how frequently this tactic is used as a stick to beat Rafa with, it was amazing to hear that Liverpool have had the best defensive record in the Premiership this calendar year and that Reina is now in pole position to win the Golden Glove Award for most Premiership clean sheets for the fifth time in six seasons at Anfield. If zonal marking is such a liability, how can we have consistently one of the best defences in the league? Yet apparently it is madness and Rafa needs to ditch it, etc.

It tells a story that Rafa Benitez’s services are still in demand by top European clubs with Juventus strongly linked and Real Madrid’s reported interest never waning. Who wanted Houllier in 2004? Exactly. The man was out of work for a year after being sacked by Liverpool and despite a brief and comparatively successful spell at Lyon, he has hardly been deluged with offers since.

The British media and even a proportion of Liverpool fans might not respect Rafa’s achievements in management, but abroad his stock remains high.

Both Houllier and Rafa can pinpoint injuries to key players in 2003-04 and this season respectively as key negative factors on their seasons. Of course, Houllier did blame injuries whereas Rafa, despite having every justification has not. In 2003-04, Houllier was without Owen, Baros, Hamann, Carragher, Henchoz and Smicer for lengthy spells during the season. This season we’ve had lengthy absences for Torres, Gerrard, Skrtel, Aurelio, Riera, Babel, Aquilani and Johnson but crucially these have often coincided with less serious injuries to other players meaning some ridiculously under-strength teams had to be fielded. Degen in midfield, anyone? Had Diouf, Heskey, Cheyrou, Biscan and Diao not been so poor, Liverpool could have coped far better without Owen, Baros and Hamann. Meanwhile, Carra was still utilised at full-back then so Finnan and Riise should have been good enough to replace him and it was purely down to Houllier that Biscan was utilised at centre-half instead of Traore. Houllier’s squad had numbers but not quality because he replaced decent players with substandard ones. Rafa has never had the money to buy quality in depth and lost three quality players against his wishes last summer. Ultimately, you can’t blame the manager for injuries to key players but unlike Benitez, Houllier should have had more quality in reserve given the money he was given to invest.

I’ve seen a few sports channels comparing the starting XI in Houllier’s final match at home to Newcastle in 2004 with XIs fielded by Benitez this campaign and suggesting that Houllier’s team was arguably stronger. Firstly, it needs to be pointed out that the line up for Houllier’s final match was probably the strongest XI he had unlike the Benitez XIs it has been compared to, and Houllier’s XI was certainly not the XI he regularly selected throughout that season – otherwise his team may well have done better and the Frenchman may have kept his job. Houllier’s XI that day featured: Dudek, Finnan, Hyypia, Carragher, Riise, Murphy, Gerrard, Hamann, Kewell, Heskey and Owen. His most used XI featured Biscan instead of Finnan and Diouf instead of Murphy which certainly weakens the argument. I thought it would be interesting to compare Houllier’s XI versus Newcastle (which as I’ve said it probably the strongest XI Houllier had that season) with what is arguably Rafa’s strongest XI this season and I’ve added squad members who also would also be regarded as the strongest players outside the first XI. For each position, I wanted to judge which player based on their form in 2003-04 or 2009-10 respectively, I would want in our squad for 2010-11. For the 2003-04 squad, I have had to disregard what I know they went on to achieve and try to recall my views of them in the summer of 2004.

Comparison of first XIs / squads:

Dudek.....................Reina
Finnan....................Johnson
Hyypia....................Agger
Carragher..............Carragher
Riise.......................Insua
Murphy...................Mascherano
Gerrard..................Kuyt
Hamann.................Lucas
Kewell....................Babel
Heskey..................Gerrard
Owen.....................Torres

Henchoz................Skrtel
Traore...................Kyrgiakos
Biscan..................Aurelio
Smicer..................Maxi
Le Tallec...............Aquilani
Sinama.................Riera
Baros....................Ngog

Dudek was error-prone, inconsistent and unreliable. Reina is currently the best keeper in the Premiership and one of the best in the world. No contest. Reina.

I would say judging Finnan on his form from 2004-05 to 2006-07 he was a better right-back than Johnson has been in his one season at the club to date. However, in 2003-04, Finnan did little to impress and it was only under Benitez that he delivered his best form. Johnson has looked world class going forward but questionable defensively (more in terms of positionally than ability-wise) but comparing Johnson this season with Finnan in ’03-04 I would choose Johnson every time.

Hyypia is an absolute legend but ’03-04 was not his greatest season – admittedly he was hampered by having Igor Biscan alongside him for much of the campaign. Agger has the potential to become a legend and has performed well this season. Given the choice of having Hyypia aged 30 again or Agger aged 25, I simply couldn’t choose.

Carragher finished the ’03-04 season playing centre-half after Houllier belatedly accepted Biscan was not the next Beckenbauer but for much of the season and for most of his prior Liverpool career, Carra had been an underwhelming full-back who was solid defensively but offered little going forward. Obviously, hindsight tells us he became a truly great centre-half but in ’03-04, no one could have predicted that. Inevitably, Carra aged 32 has less going for him than Carra aged 26 but because we now know Carra can be and has been a world class centre-half but didn’t back then, I couldn’t choose.

Riise in ’03-04 was shocking. Despite that cannon of a left-foot, he scored zero goals and was something of a liability defensively. The following season, he massively improved under Benitez but in the summer of ’03-04, few people would have considered him good enough to play in a title-chasing team. Insua was praised to the hilt after a brief run in the team last season but this season given prolonged exposure to the first team because of Aurelio’s injuries and lack of competition from Dossena, he has come in for a lot of flack. Insua needs to improve positionally – particularly to compensate for his lack of height – and I am not convinced he will ever be good enough but despite his shortfalls (no pun intended) he has been better this season than Riise was in ’03-04 and has time on his side to improve. Discounting my knowledge of Riise’s performances in ’04-05 and ’05-06, I would edge towards Insua but this is so close I’d have to declare another tie.

In ’03-04, Hamann was at the wrong end of his career and in decline. In the two seasons following, he proved he was still capable of big performances on big occasions but Liverpool were never going to win the League with Hamann as a mainstay in central midfield going into the 2004-05 season, let alone beyond. Most supporters agree that Liverpool will not win the League with Lucas as a mainstay in central midfield either. The one thing Lucas has in his favour is his age. While being young doesn’t guarantee he will improve, comparing a 23-year old with a 31-year old experienced international is hardly fair. Honestly, I’d probably choose Hamann aged 31 than Lucas aged 23 but it is a tough, tough decision and one I could regret in three years time.

Gerrard is central-midfielder who would go onto play right-wing and later as a forward. Kuyt is a forward who would go onto play right-wing. In the summer of 2004 everyone could see that 24-year old Gerrard was our best and most influential player and was key to the club’s fortunes in the coming years. In 2009-10, supporters are divided over the merits of the industrious Kuyt and with him being aged 30, there are big questions over how long he should remain in the club’s first team. No contest, I choose Gerrard ’03-04.

Despite being many fans’ choice for Player of the Season in ’02-03 (not that we were spoilt for choice), Murphy deteriorated in ’03-04. Playing in central midfield with Gerrard as a partner, simply didn’t work as possession was too easily lost and the back four had too little protection. Despite an improvement in form during the run in (and another winner against the Mancs), ’03-04 was a disappointing year for Murphy. Mascherano started this season badly but since then has been one of our best outfield players (if not the best). Ultimately, this is a choice between the captain of Argentina and the captain of Fulham... Masch.

Kewell in ’03-04 actually had his best season for the club. Babel’s best season to date was ’07-08. Kewell started well but was poor in the second half of that season. Babel started poorly but improved in the second half of this season. Kewell never fulfilled his potential at Anfield and there is every chance Babel won’t either. I can’t separate these two.

Gerrard has been a massive disappointment in this campaign but has been outstanding for the previous decade. Heskey was a massive disappointment for most of his Liverpool career. Comparing Gerrard in 09-10 with Heskey in 03-04, I would still take Gerrard though it isn’t as clear-cut as it should be.

Torres is better than Owen in any season full stop. In fact, Torres is better than Owen and Heskey combined. Not just my opinion but backed up by the stats. In ’03-04 Owen and Heskey scored 23 goals in 65 League appearances between them; in ’09-10 Torres scored 18 in 22 appearances.

Henchoz in ’03-04 was on his last legs and Traore was crap so Skrtel and Kyrgiakos would get the nod.

Biscan was a terrible defender and something of a joke figure wherever he played so Aurelio is the better utility player (when fit).

Smicer 03-04 and Maxi 09-10 are both knocking on but Maxi is the better player and, on the evidence of this season, looks better suited to the Premiership. I’d have Maxi.

Baros missed much of the ’03-04 season due to injuries and simply not being selected after his recovery – a bit like Aquilani in ’09-10. Aquilani has better pedigree and a footballing brain whereas Baros was always something of a headless chicken. I’d choose Aquaman.

It’s hard to choose between Florent Sinama-Pongolle ’03-04 and David Ngog ’09-10. Both young, both raw, both possessing potential and both French. Sinama looked the more rounded player but his strike rate of 2 goals in 23 appearances in ’03-04 is bettered by Ngog’s 8 in 35 so far in ’09-10. Personally, I’d have Sinama but either way it’s a gamble on potential. Finally Le Tallec ’03-04 and Riera ’09-10. Both are pricks and neither are as good as they think. Take your pick or better still pick none.

So overall, the 2009-10 first XI still looks stronger (albeit not massively) than the 2003-04 team while the 2009-10 squad is stronger. There is no evidence that the team has gone backwards based on comparisons of playing staff.

How to conclude? Well my view is simple. I want Rafa to remain LFC Manager for another season at least. I would completely understand if he chose to move on but for the sake of the club, I hope he does not. Does that make me a hypocrite because I wanted Houllier out? I think I’ve proven that there were criticisms of Houllier’s performance that stand up to scrutiny so no.