What’s the worst that can happen?

It’s amazing how much difference a year can make. Last summer after coming so close to being Premiership Champions, we were discussing final pieces of the jigsaw - marquee signings like David Villa or David Silva who could add that little bit of gold dust to an already impressive squad. A year on and it feels as though we’ve hit rock bottom. It feels like we’re as far away from winning the title as we’ve ever been and far from speculating about which superstar could take us onto the next level, we’re worrying about our best players being snatched from us by ‘bigger clubs’.

So indulge me a Dr Pepper moment while I ask “What’s the worst that can happen?”

While I suppose the worst case scenario is that we ‘do a Leeds’ (i.e. flog our best players then next best players in a fire sale and plummet towards relegation and administration), realistically it is about as likely to happen as the best case scenario – that we are bought by a sugar daddy who finances moves for the top players in the world giving us a squad with sufficient strength in depth to see us win the Premiership next season.

While neither scenario is completely implausible, the odds against either are so tall we can safely dismiss them both.

I think we can also dismiss the prospect of Torres, Gerrard, Mascherano and Johnson all being sold or of any of those players being sold without the manager being able to re-invest at least some of the profit (though not necessarily all). My reason for believing that is simply that it would be madness to do so given the Americans’ determination to make a profit on their dirty dealings with Liverpool Football Club.

While Liverpool’s current squad remains intact, we have a fighting chance of finishing in the top four again next season. Forget the title; that is a pipe-dream with our current squad but Champions League qualification is achievable. Chelsea and Manchester United will finish in the top three for certain. Manchester City are the only club capable of challenging them if they get their act together. They are, however, just as likely to be battling for fourth again just as they massively underachieved in the season just finished. Assuming Spurs get through their qualifier into the Champions League proper, they will find the demands of playing in Europe’s premier competition in addition to competing in the Premiership a draining experience. Even the likes of Man United have struggled in the League after Champions League group games away from home so without that experience, it is entirely feasible to expect Spurs to struggle to battle on two fronts.

That gives Liverpool an edge on Spurs while their London rivals Arsenal have yet to string two decent seasons together since Benitez arrived in England so there is every chance they will drop into the battle for fourth next season. Aston Villa should be there or thereabouts again but given their tendency to shoot their load too early, I fully expect them to drop out of contention with another limp finish.

With a new fitness coach on board with the remit of keeping the likes of Torres, Johnson, Gerrard et al from missing significant chunks of the season again, plus the theory that says we can’t possibly suffer as many injuries to key players in a third successive season, it is feasible to think that with the same squad we can enjoy a far more successful campaign this time around.

If Torres was sold this summer, it would represent a massive blow – psychologically at least. El Nino is simply irreplaceable. Whatever fee he was sold for, you simply couldn’t buy a player as good as him. However, it you could buy a player who was inferior but still pretty darn good and who would be available for most if not all of the campaign, that could actually strengthen the team. Torres’ goal to game ratios in the last two seasons and, indeed his full three at Anfield, are simply outstanding. His appearances record is not. Is it better to have a striker who scores virtually a goal a game but misses half the season or a player who scores once every two games but plays the full campaign? I would suggest that latter. While the stats dictate you would basically get the same goal return, in the case of the former, you would be playing half your games without your best forward. That weakens your team and boosts your opponent in a significant number of your games. Of course, we’ve seen this proven during the 2009-10 campaign.

If Gerrard was sold this summer it could be a blessing in disguise. The player’s tantrums and lack of form this season have seemed to have a detrimental effect on his team and, just like Arsenal’s players relished the departure of Thierry Henry, it could be that moving on the Reds’ skipper might equally galvanise the remaining players allowing them to play under less pressure. No one can say at this point whether this season was a blip for Stevie or evidence of decline in a player past his peak. What is certain is that under any circumstances, selling a 30-year old for big money has to be considered good business in the world of football. Gerrard has been one of the finest players of his generation but he cannot go on forever and in the absence of an obvious replacement with equal ability, perhaps a player like James Milner might be able to replace him in a more subtle way that perhaps benefits the team.

While I don’t advocate selling either Gerrard or Torres, the fact is injury and form have deprived us the chance to see both individually or together on a regular basis in the last two seasons selling one or other doesn’t have to mean the end of the world or indeed Liverpool FC. I would say that selling either to a Premiership rival would be absolute madness and something I am sure that Liverpool would not even consider. To me, that increases the chances of Torres staying as there are few teams in Europe with enough stature or financial clout to attract him. He would never contemplate joining Real Madrid and Barcelona have just splashed out on David Villa. I can’t see Italy tempting him. Gerrard perhaps might be interested in teaming up with Alonso and Mourinho at Real Madrid. If he wanted to go, best of luck to him, as long as we get £30-40m back.

Then there is Mascherano. Losing him would be a blow but with Lucas an up and coming player in the same mould, albeit not yet as good as the Argentinean, his departure could be countenanced. While Mascherano is arguably the best defensive/destructive midfielder in the world, he is ultimately a player of limited all-round ability. His attacking qualities and goal threat are virtually non-existent and it might be to the benefit of the team if he were replaced with a more rounded (and taller) player. However, I can’t see a likely destination for him outside of Anfield. Barca wanted him last season and it’s clear he had his head turned by the Catalans but unless they can flog Ibrahimovic for big money, it’s difficult to see where they will get the funds to pay a premium fee for him. If he enjoys a storming World Cup, perhaps suitors will come out of the woodwork but for now he looks to me like a player who missed the boat last summer and is now more likely to stay.

I like Johnson but I have no fears about him being sold. Again, it is only if he stars in the World Cup that I can see another club making the sort of offer that might tempt us to deal and if that happened, there are other right-backs who could be bought. Realistically though, I can’t see it happening and I expect him to be at the club next season.

So basically, unless players were sold and the money was then not made available for purchasing replacements, there is every chance we will go into next season with a team and squad of the same strength as the one that has ended this campaign. It won’t be good enough to win the Premiership but it might be good enough to finish in the top four and would be good enough to win the Europa League and possibly one of the domestic cups given favourably draws. Unless injuries and downright farcical refereeing decisions effect us on the same scale as in this season, I would expect us to finish above Villa and probably Spurs as well. Then it comes down to how well or not Arsenal and Man City fare in the new campaign as to whether we can make that top four. I can’t see the likes of Everton or Birmingham getting close enough to challenge us. If anything, I expect us to pull further away that we were this season.

It’s not what we want and certainly not what we would have expected a year ago but in the circumstances, it’s the best we can hope for.