Hodgson: Wrong Man

Calling for the dismissal of a Liverpool manager is not an action to be taken lightly. Doing so after just five League games is an open invitation to others to label you impatient, irrational, unreasonable or a ‘knee-jerker’. Wishing to be fair and objective, I feel as though it would be inappropriate to say that I believe it would be in the best interests of Liverpool FC if Roy Hodgson was not its manager. I feel as though I have to ‘give him time’ and that to not do so would be considered unreasonable.

The truth is, if I hold back it’s because I think others think I should and I don’t want to be judged as a rash, irrational knee-jerker. The truth is I did not believe Hodgson was up to the job before his appointment so I don’t think I should be accused of negativity for continuing to hold that belief in the absence of any evidence to the contrary. That doesn’t mean I want or have wanted him to fail. In the earliest weeks of the season, I was even encouraged to the point where I thought he might prove me wrong to doubt his credentials. I do believe he is capable of improving things from where we are today and I acknowledge he has been hindered by a tough opening fixture list but I do not believe he will improve things to the point where I believe the team is performing as well as it could under a different manager. I’m realistic enough to accept we can’t attract a top class manager but at this point I think we would fare better under Dalglish or even Hughes, O’Neill or, dare I say it, Moyes. I’m not saying I want any of them to be the next manager but the point is I think there are others who could do a better job than Hodgson has to date.

That isn’t a reaction solely to his first eleven games in charge. I am not (as someone suggested) labeling him a bad manager after one ‘bad’ season (not that we’ve even reached October yet). Hodgson has had a management career spanning 30 years and his CV is there for all to see. I’ve never thought him a bad manager but nor does he strike me as anything above average. As much as I would like him to achieve whatever can constitute success at Liverpool, past precedents don’t suggest that will be the case.

We can only hypothesize as to what situation we would be in under different managers and it’s possible we might have had the same number of points but I very much doubt another manager would have us playing the same way. It is that method of playing that prevents me having confidence that things will turn around. To me, Hodgson appears to be attempting to recreate the playing style that brought him ‘success’ at Fulham and I don’t think it will work given the different statures of the clubs and expectations of the fans.

I fully acknowledge that he has inherited a truly difficult situation but I feel his decisions on tactics and transfers are actually making things worse.

While there will always be occasional shocks, certain outcomes are predictable based on past precedents. It was always highly unlikely that Hodgson was going to succeed where Benitez had failed. If Sam Allardyce replaced Alex Ferguson, we could all predict with reasonable accuracy that he would ultimately fail in the job whether or not he was given time to prove that to be the case or not. If feel that while giving Hodgson time might be fair because ‘you never know’, ultimately we’re postponing the inevitable. If he isn’t removed by a new owner beforehand, I believe that sooner or later there will come a point where the majority of the supporters want him out. That’s my opinion but I’ve followed the sport long enough to trust my instincts.

Having never been a pioneer or innovationist during a managerial career spanning over 30 years, it is reasonable to dismiss the possibility that Hodgson’s negative tactics are ahead of their time. If they are therefore established tactics, it would be reasonable to assume that if they were conducive to success, at least a reasonable number of ‘big’ clubs would employ them. However, it is fair to say that none of the big clubs in the big leagues are currently achieving any sort of success with such methods which suggests that these are not the optimum tactics for ‘big’ clubs to employ.

So why is Hodgson employing them? You could understand playing so negatively away to Man United (although ironically in that game the only time we competed was after we changed our tactics in response to going 2-0 down but as soon as we leveled we reverted to the previous tactics and threw the game) but can anyone understand the benefits of allowing the team to be dominated at home by the likes of West Bromwich Albion, Steaua Bucharest and a Northampton side sitting in 17th place 3 divisions below the Premiership?

Even if this method did bring positive results – which hasn’t been the case so far – it makes for a dire spectacle. Ultimately, football is a spectator sport and people watch it to see their team in possession, attacking the opposition, being creative and scoring goals; not retreating behind the half way line, meekly surrendering possession, looking bereft of attacking ideas and consistently looking second best.

Our revival hinges on the sale of the club to a buyer who will invest significantly in the playing staff and, of course, the stadium. If that doesn’t happen, our best players will leave and nothing that happens between now and then will make any difference. However, we have to hope it will happen and if it does, our revival would be easier if we have retained our best players. My concern is that while Hodgson persists with these tactics, Torres will get fed up of being starved of service, Agger will get fed up of being omitted from the starting XI or told to hoof the ball when selected, and Reina will get fed up of being overworked with scant rewards for his efforts. Meanwhile fans will turn away in their droves making LFC a less attractive proposition to any potential owners.

In the interest of fairness, I have attempted to cross-examine my own thinking to ask whether I am being harsher on Roy than I was with Rafa given that I was delighted when Rafa replaced Houllier but dismayed when Roy replaced Rafa. In Rafa’s first season at Anfield, he got a lot wrong and if I had been looking for evidence that he was the wrong man for the job, I could have found plenty. For example, playing Salif Diao ahead of Alonso in away games at Chelsea and Everton; handing debuts to two Spaniards at the Reebok Stadium; signing Josemi, Nunez and Morientes, and losing to teams like Crystal Palace and Burnley. If I’d had an agenda, I could have cited these (and more) examples to back up my argument. However, I did not. I believed in the manager. I was patient and continued to support him and the team. Should I therefore do the same with Hodgson?

In the case of Rafa’s first season, I reasoned that he was new to the Premiership and needed time to get to know the league, get to know his players and to overcome a language barrier to communicate his ideas to his players.

Roy doesn’t have the excuse of being new to the league or facing a language barrier. In fairness, he does need to get to know his players and perhaps the step up from Fulham to Liverpool takes some adjustment in the same way as moving to a new league.

I also thought Rafa inherited a weak squad and I don’t think that is true in Roy’s case. I think some of his selections and tactics are weakening his first team but there is more quality there than we are seeing. In any case, Rafa got some of the poorer players and the team as a whole playing better than in the previous season (albeit inconsistently) whereas Roy has so far got some of the better players playing worse and the team as a whole playing consistently badly. At least in that first season under Rafa, there were glimpses of a better future.

The other factor, at the risk of sounding ageist, is that Rafa joined us as one of the brightest managerial prospects in Europe. He was fairly young, modern-thinking and had his best years ahead of him. He had time on his side to learn, adapt and improve. If Roy needs time at the age of 63, when will he be ready?

Everything about Roy’s strategy appears geared to short-term improvement (e.g. clearing out promising young players, trimming the squad and recruiting ‘experienced’ players) yet we aren’t even seeing short-term improvements in terms of results or performances.

I haven’t ‘turned on the manager’. I never wanted him in the first place. I think it was a mistake to appoint him and so far things are actually turning out worse than I expected.

I won’t be marching to Anfield chanting ‘Hodgson out!’ or burning effigies of the man. For a long as he is in the post I will hope he gets it right and proves me wrong to doubt him but I just do not believe that will happen and I do believe that the sooner he is replaced, the better our prospects will be for the future. I think I should be able to say that without being accused of negativity, knee-jerking or being part of a ‘Hodgson out’ brigade.