A Bridge too far?

If Rafa needed to point out a measure of the progress Liverpool have made under him, today’s opposition would provide the perfect illustration. Since Benitez arrived on Merseyside in the summer of 2004, he has overseen 24 games against Chelsea in just 5 seasons. His record is shown below:

2004-05 Pld. 5 W 1 D 1 L 3 GF 3 GA 5
2005-06 Pld. 5 W 1 D 2 L 2 GF 3 GA 7
2006-07 Pld. 5 W 3 D 0 L 2 GF 5 GA 3
2007-08 Pld. 5 W 0 D 3 L 2 GF 4 GA 7
2008-09 Pld. 4 W 2 D 2 L 0 GF 8 GA 7
TOTAL Pld. 24 W 7 D 8 L 9 GF 23 GA 29

Chelsea slightly edge ahead on stats but overall the records between the teams are virtually equal. That is a remarkable achievement considering Chelsea’s vastly superior resources and the fact that in Benitez’s first season, Chelsea already had a squad good enough to win the League whereas Liverpool’s atrocious squad needed a total overhaul. In spite of now having four managers plus Avram Grant in charge during Benitez's tenure, Chelsea have had relative stability in terms of playing staff illustrated by the fact they could today field 6 key players who also played in Rafa’s first match against Chelsea (Cech, Terry, Carvalho, Lampard, Drogba and Joe Cole) or at least they could if Cech wasn't suspended. By comparison, Rafa could field just one - Carragher. Gerrard is the only other current Liverpool player who was in the Liverpool squad that season although he missed that fixture through injury. While Chelsea’s spine was in place as far back as then, Rafa had to build his team up integrating numerous signings in key positions each season despite which he has steadily improved our record against the Londoners.

In fact, recent stats favour Liverpool. We are unbeaten against Chelsea in the last 5 League games against them and are also unbeaten in the last three fixtures at Stamford Bridge in all competitions (4 if you just take the first 90 minutes of our 07-08 annual Champions League Semi-Final there). Let’s also not forget that we beat them home and away in the League last season and finished above them in the table for the first time under Benitez.

You can also add anecdotal evidence to the mix. In our 2004-05 Champions League Semi-Final against them, no one gave us a chance. Even we as supporters knew they were a better team than us and that somehow squeezing past them would represent a major coup and shock. Irrespective of the respective histories and sizes of fan bases, our 1-0 win over them was a giant-killing act in which we were David and they were Goliath. Fast forward to last season and we were going into games expecting to win. Their 3-1 win at Anfield last spring was considered a shock result around Europe. When we won 1-0 at the Bridge in the League, people were saying “It’s about time Rafa’s record against the other Big 4 teams improved.”

The only shock result that could occur today is a big win such as 4-1 for either team. That shows how much Rafa has bridged the gap between the two sides.

Today, nothing would surprise me. We got our asses deservedly kicked in Europe in midweek while Chelsea hardly shone against Cypriot minnows after their shock loss at Wigan the weekend before. Rafa will know he got his team selection wrong in Florence. With Mascherano ruled out after picking up a hamstring injury in training, Rafa should have kept Stevie G in midfield alongside Lucas but instead restored the captain to his roving forward role and brought in Aurelio for only his second start of the season. The result was that Fiorentina dominated the midfield with ease and Gerrard barely saw the ball in the first half. Aurelio and Lucas were awful but another South American, Insua rivalled them for the title of worst Liverpool player on the pitch. The other full-back, Johnson also had his worst game for the club resulting in a complete lack of width until Gerrard started pulling wide in after half-time.

Mascherano is expected to be fit for today’s game and, if so, Rafa will certainly play him alongside Lucas. Personally, I would pair Gerrard and Mascherano. At Anfield last season, Chelsea man-marked Gerrard and it appeared to nullify him. Of course, it subsequently transpired that Stevie was injured but Chelsea will think that their tactic was successful and will likely try it again if our captain is given the forward role. Put him in midfield and the tactic will be wasted. Instead, put Benayoun in the second striker’s position and use Kuyt on the right. When used in a wide position, Benayoun offers no protection to the full-back behind him and invariably drifts inside leaving no outlet in the wide positions. Put him in a central role and he can shine as he did at the back end of last season. Kuyt will protect his full-back and will also stay wide and get crosses in. On the left, Rafa faces a tough decision. Everyone in football knows Johnson is vulnerable in one-on-one situations but if Ancelotti’s scouts aren’t blind, they will also see that Insua is a weak link on the opposite side of the pitch. Riera will give only limited protection and Babel will give none. Rafa’s choice is to swap Insua with Aurelio or, more likely, to play Aurelio in midfield ahead of the Argentine. Either way, he has to do something in mitigation as Chelsea will certainly target Liverpool’s full-back areas today. If we can nullify their threat from the wide positions, they will struggle to create through the middle just like last season. For me, that is the key to today’s game.

Prediction? No idea. Nothing would surprise me but for once, I hope Manchester United are still top of the League after today as that will mean we picked up at least a point. Meanwhile, if we get battered, at least we won’t have helped Man Ure’s title bid. It’s a no lose situation.