Knee-jerk reaction or evidence-based conclusion?

Last season, I conceded our title chances at several points in the season only to find my optimism reignited at later stages. The most obvious example was after the home draw against City followed by a chronic defeat at the Riverside. We looked dead and buried and I didn’t believe that even a victory at Old Trafford would be enough to claw back United – not that I believed we would win at OT. Then after we smashed them 4-1 and they lost their next game at Fulham as we trounced Aston Villa 5-0, I found new reasons to believe we could win it. There were two key factors in that change in outlook. First we were playing well and looked like we could beat anyone and everyone and second the Mancs were totally out of form and looked extremely vulnerable. They could and should have dropped points in their following games against Aston Villa, Sunderland and Tottenham but freak events and bad refereeing decisions combined to see them win all three and my hopes proved to be false hopes.

Earlier in the campaign, I had conceded the title after we failed to beat or even score against Fulham and West Ham in successive home games only to see Man Ure avoid a deserved home stalemate of their own by scoring a Fergie-time winner against Sunderland. Their ability to win a game they deserved not to coupled with our inability to do the same led me to conclude it would be them, not us who would win the title. Though I was proven right ultimately, the point is that I subsequently found reason to believe we could win the League before the end of the season.

I promised myself not to be so quick to write off our chances this campaign and yet by the first weekend of October I have already done so at least twice. Am I guilty of knee-jerk reactions?

Excluding occasional extreme reactions fuelled by immediate post-match emotion (and often alcohol), I try to be balanced in my conclusions. For example, after the Aston Villa home defeat, I pointed out that in 2001-02 we also lost at home to Villa in our third League game and had won 1 lost 2 of our first 3 games but went onto to enjoy our then record best season in the Premiership. As disappointed as I was after that defeat this campaign and as difficult as it was to envisage us winning this title, I found reasons to believe it was too early to write off our chances.

However, when the transfer window closed without our squad being strengthened, I felt it would take a miracle for us to win this League title. Had we beaten Chelsea (and we could have if the clear-cut penalty had been given for Drogba’s blatant foul on Skrtel), I might have had a reason to think that miracle was possible. Unfortunately, we suffered a harsh and ill-deserved defeat. Meanwhile, I have seen the Mancs and Chelsea winning games they should have drawn and drawing games they should have lost with some hugely fortunate refereeing decisions going in their respective favours. For Liverpool to win the League, we would need Man Ure and Chelsea to perform below their potential while we would have to perform to or above ours. If anything, this season Man Ure have performed above their potential while Chelsea are definitely achieving theirs. Meanwhile, City and Arsenal look strong enough to offer us serious competition if those other two did start to blip.

It is on that basis that I simply cannot see us winning this title. I don’t think that is a knee-jerk reaction. I believe it is a logical conclusion based on evidence. If we win at Sunderland and then beat the filthy Mancs at Anfield in our next two League games, I might find reasons for optimism – particularly if the likes of Chelsea, City and Arsenal drop points during the same period (no, I’m not worried about Spurs). If that happened and I wrote on here that we could win the League, I would be vulnerable to accusations of knee-jerking but I would argue that my point of view has altered in the light of new evidence.

Right now, the evidence available indicates we can’t beat any team likely to qualify for European football and concede two goals every time we play away from home. If our results in our next two League games offer alternative evidence, then any conclusion drawn will obviously be different. However, I won’t be coming out and stating we will win the League – that really would be knee-jerking.